435 FXUS62 KFFC 061632 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1132 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 .UPDATE... Made a few adjustments to the near-term forecast grids to match current trends. Shifted better POPs a little further south and west, but didn't end up changing the fundamental arc of the previous grid trends all that much. Tweaked temperatures and dew point temperatures a tad. Lower levels remain drier than model forecast preventing much of the light precipitation currently showing on radar from reaching the ground in measurable amounts. That should begin changing in the next few hours as the low-levels slowly but gradually moisten and the better rainfall rates move into the region. 20 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 630 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019/ PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... High pressure currently located along the NC coast. A frontal boundary remains just west of the Mississippi River along with a low pressure center across NE TX. As the frontal boundary pushes east today, the high center will emerge offshore the coast of the Carolinas. The front should begin pushing east of the Mississippi River by midday and then across the CWA overnight. Models have been fairly consistent keeping the boundary weak as it moves through with the airmass remaining pretty stable over the outlook area. Thunder is still not expected at this time. For now, the highest pops remain across the NW portion of the CWA. Precip should fall apart as it moves east/southeast. From run to run, the QPF keeps getting lighter and lighter with locales across western GA getting less than a tenth of an inch. Low pressure is expected to develop across the northern Gulf of Mexico along the front. For now, impacts from the low should remain well to the south of the CWA. If the low develops a little further northward, then pops may have to be raised across the southern CWA. Temps remain above normal through the period. NListemaa & LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... The long term period begins on Sunday morning with a wedge in place across northeast Georgia. As southwest flow advects moisture over the wedge, chances for showers will increase on Sunday. Have included slight chance pops for Sunday afternoon with increasing chances Sunday night into early Monday. Models show the wedge breaking down on Monday as deep southwesterly flow continues ahead of the arrival of a strong cold front. A large longwave trough will push a strong cold front towards the area on Monday through Tuesday with the arrival of the front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. For these time periods have included likely to categorical pops mainly across northern portions of the area. Overall, models have come into better agreement on timing of the front through the local forecast area but the GFS is slightly wetter than the ECMWF. QPF totals for Monday through Wednesday are currently around an inch to an inch and a half across northern Georgia with totals less than half an inch further south. In addition, with little to no instability with this system, have continued to keep the precipitation as just showers. Early Wednesday there is the slight potential for a mix of light rain and snow on the backside of the front, but will be highly dependent on temperatures and available moisture. This potential will continue to be monitored over the coming days. By Wednesday, the front is expected to clear the area and high pressure will build into the area at the surface, providing dry weather through Friday. After this, models differ significantly with the next system forecast to impact the area over the weekend, but overall have gone with chance pops for late Friday/Saturday until models show more agreement. High temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler with the wedge in place, in the 40s and 50s across northern portions of the area to the 60s further south. Low temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning will be trending upward in the upper 40s and 50s. The warming trend will translate to highs as well with temps Monday and Tuesday in the 60s and 70s, around 5 to 15 degrees above average. Highs through the rest of the extended are expected to be mainly in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s behind the front. Reaves AVIATION... 12Z Update... VFR conditions for today into the evening hours. A brief period of bkn/ovc MVFR is possible during the early morning hours. Light precip is expected with a cold front moving through. No major changes to the precip wording in the TAF and kept the -ra. Winds will be light through the period. A brief period of SW winds during the mid/late afternoon is possible but speeds should remain at or just below 5kt. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Med confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 59 44 60 40 / 30 40 10 10 Atlanta 59 46 59 44 / 50 40 20 10 Blairsville 52 37 55 36 / 50 30 10 10 Cartersville 59 44 60 43 / 60 40 10 10 Columbus 62 48 62 47 / 50 50 20 10 Gainesville 56 43 57 41 / 40 40 10 10 Macon 62 46 63 42 / 30 30 20 10 Rome 57 43 60 45 / 60 30 10 10 Peachtree City 59 45 61 43 / 50 50 20 10 Vidalia 67 48 65 43 / 20 20 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....Reaves AVIATION...20