868 FXUS63 KILX 051752 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 936 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 Sunny skies will prevail across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures topping out in the lower to middle 50s. A weak storm system will pass well south of the region over the next 24 hours...potentially spreading a few light rain showers as far north as the I-70 corridor late tonight into Friday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 Abundant sunshine prevails across central Illinois this morning, with 15z/9am temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. High clouds will be on the increase this afternoon, particularly across the S/SW KILX CWA. These clouds will do little to inhibit warming, as southerly winds will help boost afternoon highs into the lower to middle 50s. Current forecast is on track and requires no major updates at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 355 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 Early morning surface map showed 1018 mb high pressure along the MS/AL border and ridging northward into eastern IL and western IN. Clear skies and light to calm winds over CWA with just a few patches of shallow ground fog like at Jacksonville where vsby dropped to 1.75 miles. Seasonably cool temps were in the mid 20s to near 30 degrees across the area and close to current dewpoints. IL remained in a WNW upper level flow aloft bringing Pacific air into the area. A 556 dm 500 mb low was near the Utah and NV border, with another upper level trof over eastern Canada and New England. High pressure will strengthen as it shifts east over the mid and southern Atlantic states by sunset, with winds becoming south 5-15 mph today and mostly sunny skies overall today with mid/high clouds increasing this afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50s today with mildest readings sw CWA. A southern stream system over the sw states to track into AR/LA by sunrise Friday. Have slowed down arrival of light rain chances over southern CWA, with much of CWA staying dry this evening, then increase pops over southern CWA, south of I-72 overnight, and then lingering low pops in southeast IL early and mid Friday morning. Limited moisture this far north so just have light qpf in southeast IL overnight into mid Fri morning. Lows overnight range from lower 30s nw of the IL river, to the lower 40s in southeast IL. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 355 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 Clouds to decrease from nw to se during Friday as weak weather system moves into the Southeast States. Cooler Friday with breezy ne winds, with highs ranging from upper 30s to around 40F northern CWA, to the mid to 44-48F in southeast IL. A large 1030+ mb high pressure settles over the Midwest late Friday and over the southern Great Lakes and into IL by dawn Saturday. Cooler lows Fri night in the mid 20s, with upper 20s in southeast IL. High pressure moves over New England and mid Atlantic States by sunset Saturday and ridging back into the mid MS river valley. Saturday should be mostly sunny over central/se IL with winds becoming southerly at 5-10 mph. Highs in the low to mid 40s on Saturday. Sunday now looks drier over CWA as WAA light moisture returns near the IN border later Sunday afternoon. A cloudier day on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s northern CWA and lower 50s elsewhere with mid 50s along and south of highway 50 in southeast IL. A cold front to push se into nw IL and toward the IL river valley by Mon morning with light rain chances appearing over area Sunday night and Monday, highest pops up to likely in eastern IL overnight Sunday night and Monday. Highs Mon mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s, but range from mid 40s nw of the IL river to the mid 50s by Lawrenceville. Still some model difference with evolution of stronger storm system ejecting ne into the eastern Great Lakes Monday night and pushing a strong cold front se toward the Ohio river by midnight mon night. Rain to likely change to light snow from nw to se during Mon night, and lingering light snow or flurry chances Tue morning especially in eastern IL. Best chance of snow accumulations appears east of our area Mon night into Tue morning at this time. Lows Mon night range from upper teens to around 20F over the IL river valley, to the mid to upper 20s in southeast IL. Highs Tue only mid to upper 20s in central IL and lower 30s in southeast IL with brisk nw winds. Lows Tue night around 10F or colder northern CWA and mid teens in southeast IL. Winds chills of 5 below to 5 above zero Tue night and Wed morning over much of central IL. Highs Wed in the lower 20s from I-74 ne and upper 20s sw CWA and southeast IL. Large/strong Canadian/Arctic high pressure settles se into the region on Wed and toward the mid Atlantic Coast by Thu morning. Highs Thu in the low to mid 30s, with upper 30s in southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through this evening before clouds begin to increase/lower overnight into Friday morning as a storm system passes well south of Illinois. While light rain associated with the system will remain south of the terminals, forecast soundings suggest a period of MVFR ceilings immediately along and behind an advancing cold front between 11z and 18z. Once the front passes, skies will rapidly clear from north to south beginning late Friday morning. Have therefore scattered clouds at both KPIA and KBMI after 15z/16z. Winds will initially be S at around 10kt this afternoon, then will veer to N/NE and gust 20-25kt behind the cold front Friday morning. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Barnes