190 FXUS61 KBTV 050041 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 741 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will bring periods of snow showers to the North Country tonight and into Thursday. The snow showers will be most frequent across the northern Green Mountains. Fair and seasonably cold conditions are expected to the upcoming weekend. Warmer temperatures and increasing chances for rain and snow early next week as a low pressure approaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 723 PM EST Wednesday...A broad mid-upper level trough approaching from the eastern Great Lakes will bring continued cloudy skies and an increasing frequency in snow shower activity overnight and into the mid-morning hours Thursday. Overall, anticipating minimal travel impacts from the snow in most areas, with a dusting to an inch expected. However, orographic forcing and localized orographic blocking could yield 2-4" of snowfall along the immediate western slopes of the northern Green Mtns (Jeffersonville to Montgomery), and up to 6" possible through Thursday morning across the highest summits from Mt. Mansfield to Jay Peak. Temperatures overnight will fall back into the mid-upper 20s, with highs on Thursday mainly 30-35F. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Wednesday...We'll only have a brief lull in the snow between northern stream short waves. Next short wave will bring a quick moving clipper system across the region Friday. QPF amounts will be very light but snow ratio high. Looking a light snowfall of 1-2 inches across across central and southern counties with lesser amounts to the north. Clipper system moves off to the east Friday night bringing an end to the snow. High pressure builds in at the surface through Saturday. While aloft heights rise a bit however northwest flow aloft will persist across the region through Saturday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Wednesday...Cold and dry weather to close the weekend followed by moderating temperatures to normal to above normal readings early next week, as a storm system brings rain to northern NY and central and northern VT Monday into Tuesday. Seasonable temps and a chance of snow returns for the mid week. Saturday into Sunday...High pressure builds in over NY and New England with fair, dry and cold weather. Some radiational cooling is likely Saturday night with clear skies and light to calm winds with lows in the single digits and teens. The sfc anticyclone moves off the coast on Sunday with some mid and high clouds increasing late in the day. Max temps moderate closer to seasonal values in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Sunday night into Monday...Low and mid-level southwesterly flow increases across the region ahead of an mid and upper-level trough. In the strong low-level warm advection some spotty rain and snow showers may increase especially Monday morning. There maybe pockets of freezing rain or drizzle in the sheltered valleys before temps warm above freezing. Temperatures will rise overnight, and a non- diurnal trend was used. Lows will be early on in the 20s and lower 30s. A low pressure system and a cold front will be slowly sliding eastward from the Great Lakes Region and MS River Valley. Any rain and snow showers will transition to all rain showers by Monday pm with likely POPS used. Temps will be in the 30s to lower 40s with gray and dank conditions. It will become breezy ahead of the frontal boundary with south/southwest winds 10-20 mph or greater. Monday night into Tuesday...The mild spell of weather ends as the sfc cyclone and cold front bring periods of rain. A strong low- level jet taps into some Gulf moisture for perhaps some moderate bursts of rainfall. Lows will be above freezing Monday night, and highs on Tuesday could reach the mid and upper 40s in the valley areas. Tuesday night into Wednesday...Strong cold advection occurs in the wake of the front. The rain showers will transition to snow showers with some light accumulations over the higher terrain. Cyclonic flow persists in the wake of the front with the upper trough lingering. Lake effect and upslope snow showers will persist into Wednesday afternoon with additional light accums possible. Highs will tumble back into the 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 00Z Friday...Will see a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings overnight in association with a mid-level trough crossing the North Country. Periods of snow showers are expected at all TAF sites through 14Z, with up to 0.8" snow accumulation possible at BTV. Some minor impact to aviation ground ops is possible as ground temperatures fall below freezing this evening. The snow will generally be light, but intermittent periods of IFR vsby are possible. This will especially be true at SLK, with swly upslope flow aiding in frequency of snow showers across the northern Adirondacks. After daybreak towards 14Z/THU, expect cigs to improve to high MVFR or very low VFR at the majority of the sites. Winds will generally shift into the W-NW at 8-10kts for the balance of the daylight hours Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NWS ALY NEAR TERM...Banacos/NWS ALY SHORT TERM...NWS ALY LONG TERM...NWS ALY AVIATION...Banacos