034 FXUS66 KLOX 050004 AAA AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 404 PM PST Wed Dec 4 2019 update for new aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...04/759 AM. Expect periods of rain this morning, turning to scattered showers this afternoon. Thunderstorms will also be possible today. Temperatures will be below normal the rest of the week, and there is another chance of rain for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...04/126 PM. Storm has moved through with just some lingering showers through this evening. Could still be some brief heavy downpours but rain rates expected to remain below critical levels and all flash flood watches have been cancelled. Overnight into Thursday the NAM has been showing a weak low level feature moving into SB and Ventura Counties with a little light precip with it. At the same time a weak upper level ridge develops along the west coast so if there is any precip with it it will be light and most likely confined to the upslope areas. Main impact will be to maintain a very moist boundary layer with lots of clouds, though likely some sunshine as well, and below normal temps. Dry weather most areas Thu night into Friday morning. The next system later Friday through the weekend will be much weaker than the last couple storms but likely to spread at least light rain across most of the area. Still not real confident on timing, particularly for areas south of Pt Conception as the pre- existing ridge along the west coast will slow it down while the upper low remains well to the north. Another relatively high snow level event with accumulating snow generally above 7000'. Rain amounts expected to be less than an inch, and likely less than a half inch for coast/valleys south of Pt Conception. .LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...04/134 PM. Low confidence on Sunday's forecast as the GFS is trending drier while the ECMWF is slower to move the trough through and thus keeps at least some rain chances going. Favoring the slower/slightly wetter solution for now. The GFS and EC and their respective ensemble members are not in the greatest agreement for Monday and Tuesday but the general consensus is that there will be weak ridging and some offshore flow. This will result in dry mostly clear conditions along with a warming trend. Max temps will likely reach or even exceed seasonal normals. More uncertainty for Wed as the deterministic GFS has an upper low partially separating from the trough passing by to the north and has a little precip with it. Only one of the ECMWF ensemble members support this idea and for now will continue with a dry forecast that likely will last through next weekend. && .AVIATION...05/0003Z. At 2330Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX. Overall, low confidence in 00Z TAF package. Scattered showers will continue across the area through early this evening. Flight conditions through Thu afternoon will be mostly MVFR with low confidence in a period of IFR cigs at many airfields late Thu morning to early Thu afternoon. There is also low confidence in the development of VLIFR at KPRB late tonight into Thu morning. Overall, there is low confidence in timing of flight category changes thru the TAF period. KLAX...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. Scattered showers will continue through early this evening. Flight conditions through early Thu evening should be mostly MVFR with low confidence in a period of IFR cigs 17Z-21Z Thu. There is a 30% chance of VFR conditions at times thru the period as well. Overall, there is low confidence in timing of flight category changes thru the TAF period. KBUR...Low confidence in 00Z TAF. Scattered showers will continue through early this evening. Flight conditions through Thu afternoon should be mostly MVFR with low confidence in a period of IFR cigs 17Z-21Z Thu. There is a 30% chance of VFR conditions at times thru the period, and a 50% chance of VFR cigs by 23Z Thu as well. Overall, there is low confidence in timing of flight category changes thru the TAF period. && .MARINE...04/146 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in conditions remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Thursday. From Thursday night through Saturday, there is an 80% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670/673 and a 50% chance of SCA level winds across PZZ676. During this time, there is a 30% chance of Gale force gusts across PZZ670/673. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. High confidence in conditions remaining below SCA levels through Thursday. For Friday and Saturday, there is a 60% chance of SCA level winds and seas. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Monday, conditions are generally expected to remain below SCA levels. The only exception will be Friday night and Saturday where there is a 50% chance of SCA level southeast winds. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED). Strong rip currents and high surf possible at area beaches Saturday and Sunday. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Sirard MARINE...RAT SYNOPSIS...Sweet weather.gov/losangeles