638 
FXUS64 KMEG 042330
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
530 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Currently...High pressure is situated over the Red River Valley
with mostly sunny skies and pleasant weather across the Mid-South.
Temps range from the upper 50s to lower 60s with light WNW winds.

Tonight through Thursday...Surface high pressure will move across
the Lower Mississippi Valley into the SE U.S. A fast moving system
will approach the region and mid/high clouds will be on the 
increase. This will help keep lows in check tonight despite light 
winds. Expect temps in the mid 30s to around 40 by Thursday 
morning. Winds will shift around to the south on Thursday and 
despite the lack of brilliant sunshine temps will still climb 
above normal with readings from the upper 50s to lower 60s once 
again. 

Thursday night into Friday...Surface low pressure along with a
potent mid level shortwave will quickly race along the WNW flow
aloft and bring rain to the Mid-South by later Thursday night
continuing into Friday. This quick moving system will drop one
quarter to one half inch of rain with the heavier amounts along
and south of I-40. There is some elevated instability so a few
thunderstorms are possible, generally across east-central 
Arkansas into North Mississippi. As the system starts to exit 
Friday afternoon there is a lot of low level moisture left behind 
so some patchy drizzle is a good bet. 

Friday night into Saturday...High pressure builds across the
middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A layer of low level
moisture gets trapped across the Mid-South resulting in lots of 
low clouds and some patchy drizzle. Lows will range from the upper
30s to lower 40s Friday night with highs in the 50s Saturday.

Sunday...The high pressure system to the north moves quickly east
and southerly winds kick in. A cold front begins to approach and 
weak warm air advection across the Lower Mississippi Valley may 
lead to a few showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. 

Monday through Wednesday...Monday looks mild as a cold front 
approaches and southerly winds bring in warmer air. Rain chances 
ramp back Monday afternoon into Monday night up as a cold front 
moves trough the region. 12z models are handling this system in a 
variety of ways so it is too early to pin down the details. Much 
colder air moves in behind the front for Tuesday into Wednesday.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFs

VFR conditions continue through this TAF period as high pressure
remains over the area. Mid-level and high-level clouds will move
in overnight with winds remaining light. Winds will shift from 
west to south by tomorrow morning.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$