441 FXUS63 KIND 042017 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 317 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Dry weather is expected today through Thursday as high pressure over the southern plains slowly pushes toward Indiana and passes our state to the south by Thursday evening. Low pressure passing through the Tennessee river valley may bring chances for rain to southern central Indiana on late Thursday night and early Friday morning. High pressure is then expected to return to Indiana for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances will once again return early next work week as a frontal system arrives in the area. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 1005 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Going forecast is on track and no appreciable changes made. Previous discussion follows... Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place across the southern plains. Deep low pressure was found over Ontario. This was resulting continue northwest surface flow spilling into Indiana from the upper midwest and Canada. Gulf moisture is effectively cut-off. GOES16 shows only a few high cloud streaming across Indiana within the flow aloft. Models continue to suggest NW flow in place across Indiana today with limited forcing aloft. The high pressure to the southwest is expected to slowly build eastward. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column with unreachable convective temperatures. Thus will continue the trend of partly cloudy skies. Will not stray far from the NBM on Highs. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/... Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 GFS and NAM continue to suggest dry weather tonight through Thursday. The upper flow remains persistent from the northwest...resulting in a dry flow of Pacific and Canadian air to continue across the area. Forecast soundings and time height through Thursday continues to reveal a dry column. Thus will continue to keep a partly cloudy and dry type forecast through Thursday...along with temps close to the NBM. On Thursday night an upper short wave is suggested to push out of the southern plains toward the deep south. The models suggest a surface low accompanying this system...along with a diffuse warm front pushing into southern Indiana. At this point...best moisture looks to remain south of Indiana...with only limited forcing and moisture impacting the southern parts of our forecast area. Forecast soundings show some saturation across the southern parts of the sate...while soundings remain dry across the northern parts of the forecast area. Thus will keep some small pops in play across the Vincennes...Bedford...Seymour areas on late Thursday night and Friday morning...trending toward a dry forecast across the north. By Friday night surface high pressure in place across the upper midwest builds southeast into Indiana while the upper wave to the south quickly exits...progressing to the southeast. Strong subsidence and drying return to the forecast column on Friday afternoon and night. Thus will trend toward a dry forecast here...again not straying far from the NBM on temps. && .LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Wednesday/... Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Ensembles indicate zonal upper flow over the weekend will transition to a deep trough over the Great Lakes towards the middle of next week. At this point, there is a large variance among the individual members as to the degree and track of the surface development associated with the upper trough early next week. Some of the members generate a strong surface low, while others indicate a relatively flat stable wave rippling along a cold front. This probably is a result of questions revolving around phasing with some energy in the subtropical jet. Will start to bring in PoPs on Sunday, and go with the highest PoPs on Monday into Monday night, coinciding with the passage of the surface system. Will keep precipitation type as rain through Monday, and then transition more towards snow Monday night and Tuesday towards the end of the event, as heights and thicknesses drop. Potential exists for some snow accumulations Monday night into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 042100Z KIND TAF Update/... Issued at 316 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous discussion follows. Wind gusts of 18 to 27 kts should continue through the afternoon out of 270 to 300. Gusts will drop off with sunset and winds will become light overnight. Currently VFR conditions expected with high pressure building to the south of the sites. Forecast soundings indicate some potential for patchy fog from 6 to 14Z, but no other guidance agrees with this so will continue to leave out at this time. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Puma NEAR TERM...Puma/CP SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...CP/JAS