815 FXUS63 KICT 042015 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 215 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 A continued quiet weather pattern is expected for the remainder of today and into Thursday. Temperatures for today will remain rather mild for this time of year. By Thursday afternoon, the forecast becomes a little more interesting and complicated. A moisture plume associated with a Pacific low pressure system currently churning its way through the California. The models have been rather slow with progression of this moisture plume (about 12 hours slow), making the forecast for Thursday afternoon a little problematic. Current forecast temperatures seem a little high considering the mid levels look to become rather moist and are likely to become mostly cloudy for much Thursday. Considering we are in December now with a much lower sun angle, could cause temperatures to be a few degrees colder than currently forecast, especially if the winds kick around to the north and east sooner than expected or if any appreciable rain occurs. Did trim MaxT for Thursday a few to compensate for this uncertainty. Precipitation chances for Thursday appear to be restricted to Southern and Southeast Kansas. Successive model runs seem to be reducing the amount and probability of precipitation over the CWA. As such, do not feel the precipitation will have much if any affect on temperatures at this time. Friday, high pressure will build into the region and will keep the winds out of the north for the most part. CAA will dominate the region and will keep the temperatures for Friday and Friday night near or a little below normal. During the night Friday, the high pressure will move off to the east and will allow the winds to slowly turn back around to the south and east. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 214 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 The weekend looks to be as quiet as the short term as ridging is expected to be the primary weather factor. This will keep the winds generally out of the south and allow weak WAA to remain. Temperatures for the weekend look rather mild for this time of year as well as a consequence. Sunday night and into Monday, the forecast starts to get interesting. All the long range models indicate a powerful weather system to push through the CWA. While all models agree on this approaching system, none them agree on the timing of this system. The Canadian is by far the fastest with the main system coming through early Monday morning and the ECMWF and the GFS during the afternoon and into the evening respectively. Still too far out do determine what type of precipitation will occur with this system if any due to the uncertainties but confidence is building that temperatures are likely to crash behind this system. As such, it very likely that temperatures for next week are likely to be below normal. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 VFR conditions will prevail across central and southern Kansas for the next 24hrs with only some high clouds floating overhead. Meanwhile a wind shift will push southward into central Kansas Thursday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 38 58 34 45 / 0 10 10 0 Hutchinson 34 54 32 43 / 0 10 10 0 Newton 36 56 32 43 / 0 10 10 0 ElDorado 39 59 34 43 / 0 20 20 0 Winfield-KWLD 41 61 36 45 / 0 20 20 0 Russell 29 51 29 42 / 0 10 10 0 Great Bend 29 52 30 42 / 0 10 10 0 Salina 32 53 31 42 / 0 10 10 0 McPherson 33 54 32 43 / 0 10 10 0 Coffeyville 39 61 38 47 / 10 20 30 0 Chanute 38 59 36 44 / 0 20 30 0 Iola 38 58 35 43 / 0 20 20 0 Parsons-KPPF 39 59 38 46 / 10 20 30 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...CDJ