001 FXUS64 KFWD 041829 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1229 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 .SHORT TERM... /This afternoon through Thursday evening/ Largely tranquil weather is anticipated over the next 24 to 30 hours across North and Central Texas. Upstream observations indicate thickening cirrus and based on latest upper level wind fields and trajectories, this cloud cover will spill southward to envelop most of the FA. Despite the partly sunny skies, conditions will still warm to above normal values with forecast afternoon highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. There could be a few sprinkles as cloud cover thickens and the 700-500mb layer moistens mainly across the Big Country and Central Texas. Most areas will remain rain/sprinkle-free, however. Tonight, skies will remain cloudy as high clouds continue to infiltrate the region. Overnight lows won't fall quite as low as previous nights and at this time Thursday sunrise temps are expected to be in the 40s. A few of the sheltered/low-lying regions may dip down into the upper 30s. Temperatures will moderate on Thursday as low level flow veers in advance of a front progged to head south toward the Red River late in the day. The greatest warming will occur west of I-35 and near and south of I-20 where there will be a slightly greater downslope component to the wind (more of a southwest wind). Here temperatures may soar to near 80 degrees. Elsewhere, highs in the low to mid 70s can be anticipated. If cloud cover remains dense, it's possible a few degrees may need to be shaved off of these high temperatures. Bain && .AVIATION... /18 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---None major. VFR with south flow. VFR is expected through the entirety of the 18 UTC TAF cycle. Light and variable winds this afternoon will become southerly by this evening. With light speeds (less than 8 knots), there will be flexibility for takeoff/landing configs for area terminals. A deck of cirrostratus will continue to invade with cigs around 18,000 feet AGL persisting through a good chunk of the valid TAF period. There could be some virga beneath the lower cloud bases and this may introduce some very minor turbulence for in-flight traffic. Southerly surface breezes will increase in magnitude mid-morning and beyond on Thursday. Sustained winds speeds near 15 knots are advertised by the noontime hour. A few gusts to near 25 knots cannot be ruled out. Southerly breezes should remain backed sufficiently to mitigate any substantial crosswinds, but any unforeseen veering of the surface flow could pose some low end impacts for the main north-south runways. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 325 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019/ /Thursday Onward/ A series of cold fronts will continue to invade the region through the next 7 days, leading to periods of above normal temperature, followed by near to slightly below normal temperatures. Rain chances will remain slim through this week, with slightly higher chances next week. Rest of This Week… Cyclogenesis across northern Oklahoma Thursday will lead to increasing southerly and southwesterly winds across North and Central Texas. Along with the breezy conditions, temperatures will also be on the rise, with 70s expected for much of the region. The warmest temperatures will likely remain west of I-35, where the drier air will allow for temperatures to increase into the mid 70s. A compact shortwave will be moving across portions of North Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning. Although jet dynamics would indicate strong lift as the shortwave moves overhead, most of the region will be moisture starved thanks to the barrage of cold fronts that have been shunting much of the moisture away from the region. The only locations that may have some low precipitation chances will be in the northeastern counties of North Texas due to their close proximity to the shortwave. Dynamic cooling aloft will also lead to increasing lapse rates, therefore, a mention of isolated storms will be included. All precipitation chances will end by sunrise as a cold front passes through the region, advecting much cooler and drier air into North and Central Texas. Temperatures on Friday will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Tuesday with a brisk north wind leading slightly cooler wind chills. A warming trend will commence on Saturday and continue into Sunday as surface ridging moves off to the east. Ample sunshine and the return of southerly winds will lead to temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal on Sunday. Next Week… The upper level pattern will become much more amplified as a ridge builds in the west and a trough digs through the eastern CONUS. This morning’s guidance is in much better agreement in the timing of the next cold front, pushing it through the area Monday afternoon and evening. For many locations, daytime high temperatures will likely be in the morning, followed by falling temperatures the rest of the day. Rain chances will increase ahead of the front, especially east of I-35, where moisture content will be highest. A shortwave will make its way from west to east on Tuesday, leading to weak isentropic ascent atop a cool air mass. Instability and lapse rates appear to be minimal, therefore, the likelihood of thunderstorms appears low. At this time, will only mention scattered rain showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday before another cyclone develops in the Central Plains, leading to warmer temperatures by next weekend along with a low potential for precipitation. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 69 48 75 48 59 / 0 5 0 10 0 Waco 71 45 77 48 62 / 0 10 0 5 0 Paris 64 45 70 47 59 / 0 0 0 30 0 Denton 67 44 72 46 57 / 0 5 0 10 0 McKinney 67 43 70 47 59 / 0 0 0 20 0 Dallas 70 49 75 48 60 / 0 5 0 10 0 Terrell 67 44 73 48 62 / 0 5 0 10 0 Corsicana 71 47 75 49 61 / 0 10 0 5 0 Temple 71 46 77 49 63 / 0 10 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 71 43 77 43 56 / 10 10 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 24/30