351 FXUS64 KFWD 040925 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 325 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019 .SHORT TERM... /Through Tonight/ Synopsis: Another quiet and mild day is expected today. Some high clouds will stream across the area during the afternoon and evening, but otherwise, no significant forecast issues. The region remains underneath a broad area of high pressure this morning. A weak cold front moved through the CWA late in the day Tuesday, bringing a return to northerly winds. In the upper levels, a 500 mb trough axis is moving through the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with shortwave ridging building back into the Southwest and Southern Plains. An upper-level low remains off the California Coast, about 400 miles west of Point Conception. Wednesday will start off with most locations in the upper 30s, which is near normal for early December. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 60s during the afternoon, which is near to a few degrees cooler than Tuesday's highs. While the day will start off sunny for most locations, some high clouds at around 15,000 to 25,000 ft AGL will move in during the afternoon. These high clouds will pass through as some upper-level Pacific moisture streams into the region. A couple of models attempted to produce some light rain showers in our northwestern counties, but the low levels simply look too dry to support any precipitation at the surface. That being said, some virga will certainly be possible as there will be some subtle ascent present. Heading into Wednesday night, the high clouds will persist. Additionally, winds should return out of the south as the surface high slides off to the east. The combination of high clouds and weak warm air advection should lead to some warmer low temperatures, with lows probably staying in the 40s for most locations. Lows may even stay in the 50s in the urban core of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. 37 && .LONG TERM... /Thursday Onward/ A series of cold fronts will continue to invade the region through the next 7 days, leading to periods of above normal temperature, followed by near to slightly below normal temperatures. Rain chances will remain slim through this week, with slightly higher chances next week. Rest of This Week… Cyclogenesis across northern Oklahoma Thursday will lead to increasing southerly and southwesterly winds across North and Central Texas. Along with the breezy conditions, temperatures will also be on the rise, with 70s expected for much of the region. The warmest temperatures will likely remain west of I-35, where the drier air will allow for temperatures to increase into the mid 70s. A compact shortwave will be moving across portions of North Texas late Thursday night into Friday morning. Although jet dynamics would indicate strong lift as the shortwave moves overhead, most of the region will be moisture starved thanks to the barrage of cold fronts that have been shunting much of the moisture away from the region. The only locations that may have some low precipitation chances will be in the northeastern counties of North Texas due to their close proximity to the shortwave. Dynamic cooling aloft will also lead to increasing lapse rates, therefore, a mention of isolated storms will be included. All precipitation chances will end by sunrise as a cold front passes through the region, advecting much cooler and drier air into North and Central Texas. Temperatures on Friday will be a good 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Tuesday with a brisk north wind leading slightly cooler wind chills. A warming trend will commence on Saturday and continue into Sunday as surface ridging moves off to the east. Ample sunshine and the return of southerly winds will lead to temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal on Sunday. Next Week… The upper level pattern will become much more amplified as a ridge builds in the west and a trough digs through the eastern CONUS. This morning’s guidance is in much better agreement in the timing of the next cold front, pushing it through the area Monday afternoon and evening. For many locations, daytime high temperatures will likely be in the morning, followed by falling temperatures the rest of the day. Rain chances will increase ahead of the front, especially east of I-35, where moisture content will be highest. A shortwave will make its way from west to east on Tuesday, leading to weak isentropic ascent atop a cool air mass. Instability and lapse rates appear to be minimal, therefore, the likelihood of thunderstorms appears low. At this time, will only mention scattered rain showers late Monday night and Tuesday. Near to slightly below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday before another cyclone develops in the Central Plains, leading to warmer temperatures by next weekend along with a low potential for precipitation. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /Issued 1133 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019/ Dry northwest flow aloft and building surface high pressure will result in VFR conditions through Wednesday evening with a clear sky tonight and scattered to broken high clouds on Wednesday. A northwest wind in the 5 to 9 knot range overnight will become light around midday Wednesday and south/southeast during the afternoon once surface high pressure builds east of the region. Wind speeds will remain less that 10 knots through Wednesday evening. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 49 73 48 59 / 0 5 0 10 0 Waco 69 46 74 48 62 / 0 0 0 5 0 Paris 64 46 69 47 59 / 0 0 5 30 0 Denton 67 45 72 46 57 / 0 5 0 10 0 McKinney 67 44 71 47 59 / 0 5 5 20 0 Dallas 68 50 73 48 60 / 0 5 0 10 0 Terrell 68 45 72 48 62 / 0 5 0 10 0 Corsicana 68 48 74 49 61 / 0 0 0 5 0 Temple 70 47 73 49 63 / 0 0 0 5 0 Mineral Wells 67 44 76 43 56 / 0 0 0 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 08/37