419 
FXUS63 KTOP 040921
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019

Early this morning an upper low was located over the Eastern Pacific 
off the California coast. Northwest flow aloft was noted over the 
Plains this morning while a trough moves into the eastern states. 
Models continue to be consistent with moving the above mentioned 
upper low eastward into the Four Corners by Thursday morning. This 
will allow for some ridging downstream across the southern Plains 
tonight. Temperatures look to remain above normal again today with 
highs topping out in the 50s.  Lows expected to fall into the low to 
mid 30s tonight. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2019
Thursday looks to start out dry, with increasing chances for some 
light rain by late afternoon and into the evening hours as the upper 
trough and associated frontogenetic forcing moves across the 
southern Plains. Best focus for precipitation looks to remain across 
southern Kansas into Oklahoma Thursday evening. Energy phasing from 
the northern stream will usher in cooler air behind a frontal 
boundary as the surface low tracks along the Red River. This will 
cool temps down going into Friday as cool high pressure builds 
southeast into Kansas. Expect highs to be mainly in the low to mid 
40s which is about normal for early December. 

Temperatures moderate back into the 50s for the weekend within zonal 
flow and warm advection on southerly winds. The next shot for 
precipitation returns on Monday as the next system drops southeast 
across the Plains. Thermal profiles suggest a rain to rain snow mix 
on Monday transitioning to light snow before ending Monday night. 
Temps in the 40s on Monday cool into the 20s Monday night, 
recovering only into the 30s for Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2019

No significant change for the forecast this period. VFR conditions
prevail. Winds look to remain steady enough to keep the boundary
layer slightly mixed even with good radiational cooling. Thus,
don't think fog will play a factor even if some low lying areas do
support shallow fog. Most recent guidance appears to be in favor 
of this thinking as well. 


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Drake