227 FXUS63 KIND 032232 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 532 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 317 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Dry weather is expected through much of the forecast period with generally northwest flow in place across the area. The next substantial chance for precipitation will come late in the weekend into early next week as a frontal system moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /Tonight/... Issued at 317 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Clearing is finally making appreciable progress towards the area, and expect significant clearing, particularly over the western half to two thirds of the area, this evening into the overnight. A band of weak radar returns associated with an upper wave moving through the Great Lakes will move through the area late this afternoon into early this evening, but the vast majority is not reaching the ground due to dry low level air. What is will be very unlikely to be measurable. Temperatures should drop to near overnight dewpoints with skies becoming clearer tonight, so expect lows around 30. && .SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/... Issued at 317 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Blend pops which originally had some low chances in the far south on Thursday night into Friday have now backed off of this, and this looks reasonable given the latest model runs. Should be dry throughout and beyond the short term. Blend temperatures appeared reasonable throughout and required only minor adjustment. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... Issued at 212 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Models in good agreement that the influence of surface high pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to central Indiana through Saturday night. After that, the 12z ECMWF is quicker to bring a cold front across the area early next week which lends low confidence to timing of PoPs. That said, both bring precipitation to the area by Sunday night. Decent moist return flow, and lift from upper waves in fast southwest flow aloft and the front itself support rain with the best chances Sunday night. Confidence in when the precipitation will end is low with the ECMWF about 12 hours faster pushing the front through on Monday as compared to the Monday GFS passive. Then blend held on to PoPs through Tuesday over eastern sections. With confidence on timing not great, accepted the blend. Good confidence in temperature trends if not precise numbers. Temperatures will start off near normal before low level return allows for above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday with 50 degrees possible over all or parts of the area. Temperatures will then nosedive either Monday night or Tuesday, in the wake of the front. && .AVIATION (Discussion for the 040000Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 532 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty winds return Wednesday. A few high and mid clouds will rule the evening hours. Some stratus will develop across northern and eastern Indiana overnight into Wednesday, but for the moment believe this will stay east of the TAF sites. Most cumulus that develops Wednesday afternoon will remain east as well. Winds will become west overnight, then increase in speed Wednesday with gusts over 20kt likely. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nield NEAR TERM...Nield SHORT TERM...Nield LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...50