497 FXUS61 KBGM 022347 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 647 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light additional snow is expected this evening as the storm heads out to sea tonight and Tuesday. A few additional weak cold fronts are expected to move through late this week with chances for snow showers and lake effect snow. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 610 PM update... The winter storm warning remains in effect for our eastern counties. All other counties are dropped from the warning. 315 pm update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused around the ongoing snow across much of the region this evening, dry weather most of tomorrow, and the next round of light snow Tuesday night. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the entire forecast area for the persistent snow this evening, but tapering off from west to east from around 10 pm through 3 am. Additional snowfall is expected to range from 1 to 4 inches with the higher end amounts likely in the Catskills. Storm totals generally ranged from 7 to 10 inches across much of central/srn NY with localized 11-12 inch amts...slightly lesser amounts in the Catskills (so far), and 2 to 5 inch amounts in portions of ne PA. Deep cutoff upper low shifting east off the Delmarva peninsula late this afternoon with the associated surface low slowly meandering to the e/ne off Long Island. A cold air mass filtering in on the back side of the system across wrn/central NY and PA will keep all precip in the form of snow through tonight. The forcing/lift from the system is now focused further to the e/ne...with some residual moisture wrapping around the back side of the system. This will keep additional snowfall amts and rates on the light side. There may be enough orographic lift into the Catskills to enhance snowfall and get an additional 3-4 inches or so, but for the rest of the forecast area...snow this evening and tonight should be limited to around 1 inch or less. The snow should come to an end this evening from west to east as the system pulls out of the area. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s. The snow will end late tonight and by sunrise conditions will be dry for the entire forecast area. Upper level ridging and a much drier air mass moving in from the west will allow for quiet weather through most of the day Tuesday. Winds out of the N/NW in the morning will likely keep lake induced clouds around the region most of the day...but a peek of sun by the late afternoon and early evening is not out of the question. Highs tomorrow will rise into the upper 20s and lower 30s. The ridge axis slides quickly to the east later in the day Tuesday with the next trough of low pressure/clipper system slowly rotating through the area beginning Tuesday night. This system will have limited moisture associated with it...but be cold enough for snow on at least the front end Tuesday night/early Wed morning. Amounts will be an inch or less by sunrise Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday night will drop into the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 315 pm update... A cold front moves west to east through the region Wednesday. Showers with and behind the front will start as snow then change in the valleys to a mix of rain and snow as temperatures rise into the mid and upper 30s. The best moisture with some lake enhancement will be in central NY. The showers will be snow and morph to lake effect Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture up to 15k feet with the dendrite zone in the middle of it. Northwest multiband event. Snow totals will be 1 to 4 inches in CNY and an inch or less NEPA. Lows Wednesday night in the mid and upper 20s, then Thursday a tad cooler in the low and mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 315 pm update... Little change. Delayed the onset of precipitation to Sunday night. Precipitation will start as rain or a mix to start with temperatures mid 30s to lower 40s. Previous Discussion... Unsettled weather continues into the long term as the northwest flow aloft brings occasional short waves into the area that help enhance lift off the lakes. This will keep snow showers in the forecast for much of the period, but overall precipitation will be light. Snow showers will continue on Thursday at the tale end of the previous period. There will be a brief break overnight before another short wave drops in for Friday. Snow showers continue from this system into Saturday. By Sunday, high pressure builds into the area bringing dry conditions and milder air. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large coastal system is now exiting the area off to the east at this time. Some lingering light snow showers will be near KRME, KITH, KBGM and KAVP for a few more hours (until 03-04Z). Also seeing some lingering IFR CIGS at KELM, KBGM and KITH in the northwest flow...these should improve quickly to MVFR by 04-06z this evening. Other sites are already MVFR and all taf sites should improve to VFR after 06-09z Tuesday morning. Some guidance is hinting at some sct to perhaps bkn strato-cu (2-4k ft agl) coming off the finger lakes near KITH and KBGM lingering until 12-15z Tuesday morning, so will need to watch this. High confidence in VFR conditions areawide late Tuesday morning through the afternoon and early evening; with just sct high clouds moving in from the west late in the taf period. Northwest winds 6-12 kts, could gusts 15-20 kts mid morning into the afternoon Tuesday. Wind shift westerly and decrease after sunset Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday night...Restrictions possible in snow showers after about 03-06z in the evening. Highest chance for restrictions will be for the NY terminals. Wednesday and Wednesday night...Another system moving in brings chances snow showers with restrictions possible. Thursday...Restrictions possible in lake effect snow showers, especially for NY terminals. Friday...Clipper system brings more snow and rain showers with possible restrictions. Saturday...Becoming mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for PAZ048. NY...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EST tonight for NYZ009-037- 046-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/DJP SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DGM/TAC AVIATION...MJM