924 
FXUS63 KTOP 022102
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
302 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

The center of a surface ridge resides over the Red River Valley this 
afternoon, while a leeside low strengthens in eastern Colorado. 
Temperatures this afternoon were warming to near climatological 
normals for early December with sunny skies and light winds. 
Conditions will stay quiet this evening and tonight as both the 
aforementioned ridge and surface low slide southeast. A weak 
trough will move over the area late tonight and early tomorrow 
morning, noticeable by a shift of winds to the northwest and a 
quickly moving scattered deck of clouds. Temperatures tomorrow 
afternoon will be about ten degrees warmer than today reaching 
the mid 50s across northeastern Kansas. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

The long term portion of the forecast period continues to look 
fairly inactive. Precip chances are limited to just a slight 
chance on Thursday for a small portion of the CWA. A closed upper 
low currently sitting well off the western coast of the CONUS will 
move onshore the southern California coast on Wednesday and 
proceed to traverse the southern portion of the country while 
weakening. Some moisture advection into southeast Kansas is 
expected along with some relatively weak PVA. I could see some 
showers possible in our far southeastern CWA so I have maintained 
low POPS there. Models are trending southward with measurable QPF,
so POPS are not likely to increase near and north of I-70. Beyond
Thursday, we will be watching another system over the western 
CONUS during the weekend. That one could bring our next chance for
precipitation early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

The main focus for this TAF period is on fluctuating surface 
winds. Winds this afternoon back to the south at the Topeka sites.
Veering surface winds are then expected as a weak trough moves 
over all terminals tonight and tomorrow morning. Winds speeds
should remain less than 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Teefey
LONG TERM...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey