836 FXUS64 KLUB 021121 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 521 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019 .AVIATION... VFR and dry through the period as upper level high pressure builds overhead along with a modest surface low pressure trough. RMcQueen && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2019/ DISCUSSION... Upper level ridging has begun to establish itself across the forecast area this morning which will lead to fairly uneventful weather this week. This will also lead to warming temperatures across the area with above normal temperatures expected for much of the week. Surface lee troughing today will lead to some breezy southwest winds late this morning through the afternoon with wind speeds of 15-25 mph for most locations. A weak system will pass by the area late Monday which will send a weak surface boundary across the area Tuesday morning however the only real impact of this boundary will be a northerly wind shift as temperatures will still warm nicely. Wednesday lee surface troughing will redevelop yet again leading to another round of breezy southwesterly winds. Further west, a compact upper level low is currently spinning off the northern California coast. This system will continue to drift south and then get absorbed into the flow and begin to head towards us on Wednesday. Latest guidance indicates that this system will weaken and become a fairly progressive trough that will move over us on Thursday. Mid level moisture will be advected into the region which will lead to cloudy conditions however due to the limited depth of this moisture and dry sub cloud layer the area should remain rain free. This will also lead to yet another round of breezy westerly winds on Thursday, at this point it appears wind speeds are bordering near advisory criteria (30 mph) for much of the South Plains and SW TX Panhandle. A cold front will move through the area late Thursday which will drop temperatures overnight and into the day on Friday. After a quiet weekend, another upper level trough will approach the area early next week however the details are still in question as models have had varying solutions from run to run however at this point it appears precipitation chances should be low. /WCI && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/05