958 FXUS63 KTOP 011709 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1109 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Have extended the wind advisory until 3 PM this afternoon. Even though the pressure gradient is beginning to relax, models show 850 winds on the order of 40 to 50 KT into the early afternoon. So think we could continue to see some of the higher gusts around 40 MPH through the early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 231 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Windy conditions continue across the forecast area, as a deep upper low to our northeast continues to slowly advance eastward toward the Ohio Valley. Winds at the top of the mixed layer overnight are running in the middle to upper 50kt range, and diminish toward the mid morning hours. A few sites have hit HWW criteria, but for the most part observations are in the advisory range. Will hold onto the warning out west for a few more hours and reevaluate toward sunrise. Winds overall start a slow decrease mid to late morning and into the evening hours. Cloud cover will run a similar course, with stratus wrapping around the upper low into eastern Kansas through the morning, but also advancing eastward in the afternoon. Areas that are able to get some sunshine despite the CAA regime should make it into the upper 30s while areas to the north are likely to linger in the middle 30s. As winds diminish and clouds decrease, overnight lows drop into the upper teens north to the low 20s across the south. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 231 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Generally zonal flow over the area early in the week, transitioning to northwest flow before the passage of the next shortwave trof on Thursday. Mid level ridging followed by return southerly flow Monday into Tuesday bring warmer temperatures in the 40s Monday and into the 50s by Tuesday, when a weak frontal passage brings little more than a wind shift Tuesday afternoon. The warm trend continues into Wednesday as southerly surface winds return ahead of the wave forecast to move across the state on Thursday. Temperature profiles and track so far indicate most precip in the form of rain, and with higher chances in the southern counties. Cooler temperatures return behind the system on Friday, but quickly moderate for the weekend as yet another system moves onshore into the pacific northwest, potentially moving into the plains by the late weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1109 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 CIGS have already improved to VFR and think this will persist as the system continues moving east. However models hint at some MVFR CIGS moving south along the MO river this evening. There isn't much of a consensus among the models so have opted to keep CIGS above 3 KFT at TOP and FOE for now. But there is some small potential for some MVFR CIGS. Stronger winds are likely to mix to the surface through the early afternoon keeping gusts between 30 and 40 knots. A relaxing pressure gradient is forecast to allow these winds to diminish during the late afternoon and evening. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ008>012- 020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ UPDATE...Wolters SHORT TERM...67 LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Wolters