153 FXUS63 KFGF 010700 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 100 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1259 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Radar continues to show snow moving in from the east around the north and west periphery of the upper low. The northern edge of the precip on radar was beginning to erode with drier air moving in from the northeast at lower levels. Expect the same trend to continue overnight and Sun morning. UPDATE Issued at 927 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Flow aloft was split across North America with an upper ridge over central Canada and upper low over the Central Plains. Water vapor loop indicated upper low was over the IA/NE border and was moving to the east southeast. Area radars showed plenty of moisture upstream. However there was a break in precip over northern MN and was moving to the west. GFS/RAP cross sections indicated a dry layer will move in around 850 hpa from the north after midnight and will sweep south through the forecast area by Sun afternoon. Dry air from the north should shut down the snowfall. Ensemble mean from the HREF showed decreasing snow from the north after midnight and is in reasonable agreement with operational models with drier air moving in around 850 hpa layer. Current warnings and advisories are good and no changes are expected. UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Water vapor loop indicated an upper low located over eastern NE and was moving to the east. Area radars indicated snow continues to move in from the east at about 20 knots. Bands on radar continue to shift to the west. Fewer/weaker returns along the International border. Winds have increased a bit in the southwest zones. Increased winds a bit overnight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 346 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Main impacts through Sunday will remain focused on moderate to heavy snowfall associated with a powerful winter storm causing major travel impacts across much of the Northern Plains. The latest water vapor imagery shows a powerful low pressure system tracking east through the Central Plains. Mid level dry air is brushing along the southern extent of the Red River Valley, occasionally entraining into the region and allowing for brief wintry mix but mostly not impeding snowfall amounts (except for near Grant County MN). However, dry air aloft did impede the freezing drizzle to snow transition longer than expected this morning, which will likely impact snowfall totals quite a bit across the region. Have reduced snowfall totals along and north of US Hwy 2 and in portions of west central MN to account for this. Across southeast and east central ND and west central MN, TROWAL moisture continues to stream westward into the region. A combination of this moisture with mid level Fgen, steep mid level lapse rates, and elevated instability has allowed for convective snowfall banding developing across northern and eastern MN this afternoon. This is expected to gradually weaken as the instability axis tracks further eastward away from the forecast area this evening, but the deformation zone on the NW side of the system will gradually track east into eastern ND and eventually the northwest quarter of MN. This will be the main source of additional heavy snowfall overnight tonight, where the greatest amounts are expected over west central MN (generally along and southeast of a line from Bemidji to Fargo to Milnor ND). Sustained NE winds at 15-25 mph with occasional higher gusts will bring some areas of blowing snow through this evening, but expect the main visibility reductions to occur as a result of heavy snowfall rates. The latest model runs suggest snow will begin to clear out of the area faster than previously anticipated but will hold on to headlines through noon Sunday for now and see how impacts progress. Snow is expected to taper off north of US Hwy 2 and Hwy 200 by sunrise Sunday and for the southern valley and west central MN by late Sunday morning. Lingering breezy north winds may cause some patchy blowing snow impacts Sunday morning, but generally expect improving conditions as the day progresses. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 346 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 Long term impacts are mostly how cold it will get Sunday night and then if any weak clipper brings precipitation. Sunday night and Monday...The upper low departs Sunday night, with surface high pressure building in and decreasing clouds. Think that the center of the surface high will be to our south, so we will not get as much radiative cooling as possible with south winds. However, with fresh snow across most of the region think some spots could get down to near the zero mark, especially in the southeast where winds pick up later. The cold will be fairly short lived with some warm air advection ahead of the next shortwave, allowing temps to get into the 20s to low 30s. Most of the ensemble members keep us dry as the shortwave passes through, although a couple including the operational ECMWF have some mixed precipitation moving through. Pattern is pretty progressive, so will lean towards the mean and keep things dry but will have to monitor. Tuesday through Thursday...Northwesterly flow aloft with some weak shortwaves moving through. Temperatures should be slightly above seasonal averages through mid-week but the reinforcing shortwave will bring a cold front on Thursday and knock readings back down into the 20s for highs. Friday and Saturday...After a fairly quiet and seasonable Friday, there is some divergence in the spread of solutions by Saturday, with a few solutions showing flow becoming southwesterly again. Will keep some low POPs that the blended solution gives us. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1259 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2019 Mostly IFR conditions were across the area except for along the International border and the far southeast where MVFR conditions existed. Expect the IFR conditions to shift south and east overnight and Sunday morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for NDZ016-024-026>030- 038-039-049-052>054. MN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for MNZ001>003-007>009- 013>017-022>024-027>032-040. && $$ UPDATE...JH SHORT TERM...BP LONG TERM...JR AVIATION...JH