970 FXUS64 KLUB 301825 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1225 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019 .DISCUSSION... Windy conditions are expected to persist all terminals before diminishing late this afternoon. Visibility reductions in blowing dust has been mild thus far. It is certainly possible that periods of MVFR vis may occur this afternoon. && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/ DISCUSSION... The shallow stratus has nearly completely eroded for much of the area, but remains mostly intact over the southern Rolling Plains. We are extending the Dense Fog Advisory until 8 am for this area. But trends on the Caprock this morning were clear that veered westerly flow with drier air was sweeping in. And a Pacific Cold Front will also become more apparent around daybreak with flow veering to the west-northwest with cold advection prevalent throughout the day. Highs today will again come up short of normals. But the big news today will be wind. And solutions have trended very recently toward stronger flow in the upper portion of the projected mixed layer, around 750-800 millibars, with wind speeds close to 50 to 55 knots from about Lubbock northward and westward. This is often a good indicator for potential maximum wind gust and suggests a possible risk for high winds in about this same area today. For now, we followed the previous trends and blended wind solutions indicating the main high wind threat today will be just north of Lubbock and have issued a High Wind Warning starting later this morning. But we may adjust the High Wind Warning further south if the trends indicated above for 50+ knots near the top of the mixed layer continue in the next few hours. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for most of the remainder of the area for the same time period. Projected wind speeds also support at least a light blowing dust haze developing on the Caprock, even in spite of the recent rain and we have continued the mention for Patchy Blowing Dust. Wind speeds likely to decline by late this afternoon and become more typically breezy or low-end windy near or just after dark. Cooler air will continue advecting overnight, and Sunday will see another below normal temperature day with much lighter winds, though still breezy over the northern Rolling Plains. Beyond Sunday, little has changed as an upper level ridge will bring near-normal temperatures for most of the early to mid part of the week. A weak front should cause a shift to light northerly flow Tuesday but probably not much impact on temperatures. A wave passing Thursday appears will not have enough amplitude to hold moisture, so rain chances likely to skip past our area. But at least should see minor cooling by Friday behind associated cold front. So, dry conditions will dominate the week ahead. RMcQueen FIRE WEATHER... Recent cold and wet weather has left ERC values quite low. Given how long this morning relative humidity values have remained high, it will take most of today to dry into the 20-30 percent range, even with strong west-northwest winds. But expected wind speeds in the 30-45 mph range and gusts 55-65 mph argue towards an area-wide Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon since fine fuels can dry very rapidly. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ025-026-031>043. High Wind Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>024- 027>030. && $$ 99/99