729 FXUS63 KTOP 251127 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 527 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 Another dose of mild weather is expected today before precip chances return for much of the workweek. As of very early this morning, water vapor imagery showed a cyclonic circulation developing along the central US and Canadian border. A weak front associated with that system will move through northeast Kansas this morning, shifting winds to a northerly direction. While a batch of high clouds could accompany the front, most locations should see quite a bit of sunshine once again today. Temperatures are expected to be mild again today (although not quiet as warm as yesterday) with highs approaching 60 degrees. Lows tonight should stay above freezing in the mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 The active stretch of weather that has been advertised in previous forecast periods commences tomorrow. An area of low pressure will strengthen in the foothills of the Colorado Rocky Mountains early in the day, move into southwestern Kansas and proceed toward the northeastern quadrant of the state throughout the day. POPS begin to increase over the forecast area around sunrise. The highest chances for precip throughout the day will exist mainly over far northern and north central Kansas with the rest of the area likely to see more dry air aloft with the system. Temperatures should be warm enough to support mainly rain, however, areas in north central Kansas could have periods of snow early and late in the event. Light accumulations of snowfall will be possible in those locations. Tuesday's system will move out of the area early Wednesday as higher pressure briefly builds in. CAA in the wake of Tuesday's system will make for a cooler day Wednesday. At this time, highs are only expected to reach the upper 30s and low 40s. Dry weather doesn't last long with another batch of precipitation looking likely on Thursday. An upper closed low parked over the tropical Pacific Ocean west of Baja will finally eject eastward as another upper storm system deepens over the US west coast. The closed low near Baja will get absorbed in the upper flow but will send some energy and moisture over the central US, which will encounter some subfreezing conditions over portions of Kansas. As a result, wintry precip is looking more likely for part of our holiday. Some models are starting to hint at a slight warm nose of temperatures aloft, which would result in a mix of precip types. At this range, however, confidence is not yet high enough to make any major adjustments to the going forecast. Since the arrival of this system coincides with a busy travel holiday, those with travel plans will want to stay tuned to the forecast for changes and possible impacts. Wet weather continues on Friday as the upper trough over the west coast moves toward the central US. WAA ahead of the system should warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s Friday afternoon so precip should be in liquid form. A small amount of instability could also develop, which could result in a few rumbles of thunder. There will be at least a slight chance for wrap-around precip in the form of snow during the weekend as Friday's system departs the region. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 525 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2019 VFR conditions prevail at terminals this TAF period. A wind shift to the north is expected this morning as a weak front passes through airports. Winds will then shift to more of a north- northeasterly direction this evening. CIGS are expected to begin to decrease late in the period as a system approaches from the southwest. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Teefey