885 FXUS61 KBGM 250015 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 715 PM EST Sun Nov 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region tonight, with dry weather and a gradual warming trend through Tuesday. The next storm system arrives midweek, with periods of rain and wind, then colder with lake effect snow showers behind it for Thanksgiving. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Surface low is stationed just west of Cape Cod and will continue to push east- northeast tonight. Any remaining snowfall will quickly end across the Catskills over the next hour and the winter weather advisory has been allowed to expire. Overall, some areas in Otsego and Delaware County have received over 5 inches of snow, but the heaviest snow was elevation dependent, with only 1 to 2 inches in the valleys. Ridging, with decreasing clouds is starting to take hold this afternoon and this evening. However, with westerly flow, there will be some lake moisture that gets trapped under a subsidence inversion tonight. This could produce some drizzle or even some patches of freezing drizzle across Northern Oneida County, but overall the weather will be quiet. Not expecting a rain or snow showers overnight, even though some models do produce some light lake effect QPF. Forecast sounding indicate very shallow layer of moisture and through the saturated layer, temperatures bottom out at only -4 to -5C, so this should produce only drizzle or freezing drizzle where surface temperatures drop below freezing in Northern Oneida County overnight. Tomorrow will be dry with decreasing clouds and quite warm with low level flow turning to the SW by Monday afternoon. Highs will be in the mid to upper 40s for most of the forecast area, except in the Catskills and upper Mohawk Valley which will only climb to upper 30s to low 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... This looks to be a rather mild period with broad west-southwest flow across the area and weak high pressure at the surface. Latest guidance suggests lower 50s for a good chunk of the region Tuesday with mainly dry conditions. Low pressure develops over the Midwest on Tuesday night and races eastward into the Great Lakes. Model consensus is pretty good with this system tracking to our north and providing us with a shot of rain showers later Tuesday night and Wednesday. Winds may become gusty from the South ahead of the cold front, with the strongest gusts over the higher terrain areas. A better signature for potentially damaging winds exists on Thursday with northwest flow becoming more aligned in an unstable environment. Isallobaric rise/fall couplets traverse the area and are indicative of high winds. We'll be closely assessing that signal through the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 130 PM Update... Model trends suggest slowing down precipitation on Saturday and have followed this course of action. Also warmed up temperatures slightly for Sunday in line with latest NBM guidance. Precipitation breaks out Saturday night into Sunday in variable form with snow and/or rain showers possible. No other changes to this period. 425 AM Update... The weather turns more active for holiday travel, with a deep showery low pressure system Wednesday followed by gusty winds and colder temperatures Wednesday night through Thanksgiving including possible lake effect snow. Models have skewed just slightly further north and later in time with the passage of a deep low pressure Wednesday through Wednesday night, yet have done so in tandem and thus remain in good agreement with little change in anticipated impacts. Warm air advection ahead of the system will cause precipitation type to be developing rain Wednesday, with highs of upper 40s- mid 50s. A lower 990s surface low will then whip through the Central Great Lakes to Saint Lawrence Seaway. Strong pressure rises with steep low level lapse rates are expected late Wednesday through Wednesday night to midday Thursday with gusty winds. Gusts of 30-40 mph still appear easily attainable based on current models; we will need to monitor trends. Models have better consolidated on a window of lake enhanced/brief synoptic upslope snow southeast of Lake Ontario late Wednesday night through at least midday Thursday. We have several days to sort this out, but given the holiday travel this is worth monitoring. Chilly weather continues Friday-Saturday, but mainly dry conditions appear likely. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening at all terminals, with KAVP likely remaining that way through the entire TAF period. Then a MVFR deck of clouds is expected to develop in Central NY overnight as lake effect moisture/clouds moves in. KRME may even drop to Fuel Alternate ceilings after 05Z. There is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the conditions at KBGM overnight. Some guidance is hinting at brief fog/mist formation tonight there. While conditions aren't ideal for this as winds aren't completely calm and it will be a race to beat the incoming deck of lake effect clouds late tonight, there is some moisture to work with at ground level due to a fresh wet snow cover. Therefore went with a TEMPO group at KBGM for the 04Z-07Z time period for brief IFR visibilities. Thinking that fog/mist is unlikely after 07Z due to the increasing clouds. MVFR ceilings persist for the majority of terminals through the morning and into the early afternoon, with some Fuel Alternate ceilings as well (mainly at KRME). Improvement back to VFR is expected as the afternoon progresses, although KRME may remain MVFR until at least 00Z Tuesday. Winds tonight and early Monday morning will be west- southwesterly at less than 10 knots, before becoming more south-southwesterly throughout Tuesday. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday...VFR expected. Wednesday...A system bringing rain may pass through the region with associated restrictions. Strong, gusty winds also possible. Thursday...Improvement to VFR after morning snow showers. Friday...Mainly VFR && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB/MDP AVIATION...BJG