632 FXUS62 KMHX 220052 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 752 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually slide offshore tonight. A mainly dry cold front will push through the area Friday night, then lift back north as a warm front Saturday with a stronger cold front pushing through the area Saturday night. High pressure will build over the area late this weekend into early next week, with another front approaching the area mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 700 PM Thursday...High pressure centered along the coast will continue to slide offshore tonight. Temps have dropped quickly into the 40s early this evening with calm winds and generally clear skies, tough satellite imagery is showing quite a bit of high clouds moving into ENC ahead of a mid-level shortwave which should allow temps to level off for the remainder of the evening. Guidance showing clouds thinning after midnight but also expect to see press gradients begin to tighten as a frontal system approaches and light mixing should curtail additional cooling late tonight. Generally, expect lows in the low to mid 40s, which isn't far off from the current temps. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 300 PM Thurs...The sfc high will continue to move further SE from the coast, while a cold front approaches the region from the west. Clouds will gradually increase and lower throughout the day. Most of the day will be dry with a possible slight chance of showers late in the day along the northern zones; ahead of the frontal boundary. Models have trended drier, therefore reduced PoPs and coverage area. Low level thicknesses is supporting highs in the low/mid 60s over the NE to upper 60s near Duplin, and Onslow counties. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thu...Unsettled weather still expected for for Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will build back over the area late this weekend into early next week. Another cold front will but with limited moisture approach the area mid next week. Friday night through Saturday night...A backdoor cold front will push south through the area Fri night and early Sat, then lift back north through the area during Sat. Looks like moisture will be limited Fri night into Sat morning so not expecting much precipitation during this time and will keep PoPs at a minimum. Better chances for rain western and northern areas Sat afternoon with the retreating front. PoPs increase to likely all areas Sat night as the front crosses the area. Could see some thunder Sat night, especially near the coast. Temps Sat will be tricky due to with cloud cover and location of frontal boundary during peak heating. Temps across the southern areas will likely be able to climb in the mid to upper 60s, while temps across the northern forecast area may struggle to break 60 deg. Sunday through Thursday...Dry weather looks to return late weekend into early next week as the cold front pushes offshore early Sun followed by high pres building in from the west Sunday into Tue. Slightly below normal temps expected behind the front with highs 55-60 deg through Mon and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs should warm into the low to mid 60s on Tue and mid to upper 60s on Wed. A cold front with limited moisture will approach from the west mid week, with next rain chance Wednesday. The models are continuing to trend drier with moisture having a tough time making it east of the mountains. Thanksgiving Day is forecast to be dry and cool with highs 55-60. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term /Through Friday/... As of 730 PM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with periods of mid and high clouds streaming through. Fog potential appears minimal as lows not expected to reach cross over temps and light mixing expected later tonight as gradients begin to tighten ahead of a frontal system. Gradients tighten further Friday and clouds see SW wind gusts around 15-20 kt late morning through the afternoon. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 200 PM Thu...Periods of sub-VFR possible Friday night into early Sat mainly in ceilings due to increasing low level moisture, then better chances late Sat and Sat night as a frontal system and associated precipitation moves through the area. Pred VFR is expected to return Sun continuing into Tue as high pressure builds back over the area. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Friday/... As of 300 PM Thurs...SCA over the central water cancelled as seas became less than 6 ft, but Small Craft conditions begin again tomorrow morning across all coastal waters including the Pamlico Sound. The latest buoy observations are showing N/NW winds 5-10 knots and seas 3-5 ft. Winds will remain 5-10 knots, then winds gradually become W/SW and strengthen to around 15 knots after midnight. SW winds increase Friday morning to 15-25 knots ahead of cold front...with Small Craft Conditions starting tomorrow mid-morning through most of the day. Seas will remain 3-5 ft tonight, then build back to 4-6 by Friday night. Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/... As of 200 PM Thu...Winds will be veering and decreasing Fri night as a backdoor cold front moves south through the waters. W winds 15-20 kt ahead of the front will become N/NE around 15 kt overnight behind the front. Seas 4-6 ft in the early Fri evening will subside to 2-4 ft late. Sat the front will drift back north through the waters with NE winds 10-15 kt early veering to S/SW in the afternoon with seas remaining 2-4 ft. Conditions will deteriorate quickly Sat night, as a period of strong SW winds 20-30 kt develop ahead of the front...with the potential for a brief period of gale force gusts. Seas will be building very quickly to 6-10 ft Sat night into early Sun. Winds will shift to NW 15-25 kt behind the front Sun, with large seas gradually subsiding during the afternoon and evening with offshore flow. Mon NW winds 10-15 kt will diminish to 5-10 kt as high pressure builds over the waters, with winds Tue become SW in the afternoon. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 3 PM EST Friday for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...JME/CQD AVIATION...JME/SK MARINE...JME/BM