527 FXUS63 KLBF 192332 AAA AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service North Platte NE 532 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 H5 analysis from earlier this morning had a trough of low pressure extending from the UP of Michigan, south into Florida. West of this feature, ridging extended from the Four Corners, north into northern Montana. West of this feature, a strong shortwave trough of low pressure was located from the Pacific NW states, south to off the coast of northern California. South of this feature, a closed low was located off the coast of Baja California. High cloudiness continues to stream over the Rockies this afternoon and some of this cloudiness has pushed into western Nebraska as of mid afternoon. At the surface, high pressure has built into the Central Plains today. A stationary front was anchored along the front range of Colorado and Wyoming and extended south into the Texas Panhandle. A cold front extended east of the TX Panhandle along the Red River Valley into the Arklatex and northeast into the lower Ohio Valley. As of 2 PM CST under partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures ranged from 56 at O'Neill to 63 at Ogallala. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Temperatures, precipitation chances and precipitation types are the main forecast challenges in the next 24 to 36 hours. For tonight: The shortwave trough currently over the Pacific NW, will dive south then close off along the srn CA coast by 12z Wednesday. This feature will force the closed low, currently off the coast of Baja CA, to move northeast into eastern AZ and western NM by 12z Wed. In advance of this feature, surface cyclogenesis begin to deepen over sern Colorado overnight with increasing srly and serly winds noted across the forecast area. Moisture will advect north toward 12z Wednesday with the latest NAM 12 indicating fog development across sw Nebraska by 12z Weds. Have inserted some fog in the forecast in the SW. For now, will keep the mention as patchy due to decent srly winds persisting in the overnight, and not much support for fog in the statistical guidance. In addition, to fog potential, Bufkit soundings indicate some drizzle potential Wednesday morning which seems plausible given the strong low level moisture advection tonight. Decided to include a mention of drizzle as well. Some areas in far southwest Nebraska will be cold enough to support freezing drizzle for an hour or two Wednesday morning as temps approach 32 degrees. With the bulk of the drizzle potential expected after 12z Weds, this is a pretty tight window to support fzdz and feel the impacts and areal coverage will be very limited tonight. That being said, will just mention the threat in the HWO. For Wednesday: A strong cold front will enter the NW forecast area, pushing through all but the far eastern forecast area by 00z Thursday. Guidance temps this morning for highs Wednesday varied widely with the MAV as much as 10 degrees warmer tomorrow. Even with a blend of the MET and MAV, highs will range from around 40 in the far NW to the lower 50s in the east and south. Highs were trended down more toward the cooler MET guidance as low cloudiness is expected to persist for most of the day tomorrow. Even with cooling down temps, thoughts here are that they will probably need to be trended down farther with subsequent forecasts. By Wednesday afternoon, precipitation chances will begin to increase as the shortwave lifts northeast into Kansas. Warm air advection will increase across central and eastern Nebraska, with precipitation development expected early Wednesday evening. ATTM. the heaviest precipitation will fall along a band from just east of North Platte to O'Neill and points east, where mid level WAA is maximized. Precipitation will start out as rain with a changeover expected in the eastern forecast area during the 8 PM CT to 11 PM CT time frame. Given the small window of temperatures cold enough to support snow in the east, snow accumulations will be light overnight with better chances for accumulations into Thursday morning. In these areas, snowfall accumulations will be around an inch. A secondary band of 1 inch snow is forecast to develop along a line from Imperial to Bassett Weds night. This is in association with some deformation on the NW periphery of the H7 low, which temporarily closes off Wed evening as it tracks across central Nebraska. In the transition to snow, there will be a 1-2 hr window where some light freezing precipitation will be possible. The best potential will be over northwestern Nebraska early Wednesday evening. This area will be post frontal by that time and forecast soundings indicate a short duration warm layer just off the surface. Snow will lift into northeastern Nebraska Thursday morning. A secondary area of light snow will be possible in the west and far southwest Thursday into Friday. This will be in association with a northern stream trough initially, which migrates east Thursday night. In its wake, a H5 low will track across the srn plains Friday into Friday night. Precipitation will be light and focused mainly to the south of the forecast area. Drier air will push into the forecast area behind the exiting northern stream wave from Thursday night, inhibiting the development of snow across most of the forecast area for Friday. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Dry conditions will carry over into the weekend as a flat zonal pattern develops from the central plains west to the Pacific coast. The pattern will begin to amplify on Monday as a trough deepens across the western CONUS. As this feature deepens over the Four Corners Monday night into Tuesday, the latest GFS and ECMWF are trending toward a possible significant weather system crossing the central CONUS midweek next week. We will continue to monitor forecast trends on this one as impacts could be huge with Thanksgiving travel next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 531 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 VFR is generally expected tonight. Flight conditions are expected to deteriorate 10z-15z Wednesday morning with areas of fog and very low ceilings developing along, near and south of Interstate 80 across swrn Nebraska. VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected elsewhere across wrn and ncntl Nebraska. The LIFR across swrn Nebraska lasts until around 16z-17z. MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected throughout wrn and ncntl Nebraska thereafter. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...CDC