617 FXUS63 KLBF 191027 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 427 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Surface troughing will take shape today in the lee of the Rockies in response to an upper level trough digging southward along the west coast. Winds will turn south as a result helping to maintain another very mild day with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Low-level moisture will begin to stream north into the area tonight, with stratus clouds developing across portions of southwest into central Nebraska by Wednesday morning. The west coast upper level trough will transform into a cut off low across the desert southwest on Wednesday, with a lead wave ejecting northeastward from the low Wednesday afternoon. This will result in a deepening surface low across eastern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. Low-level moisture will continue to stream north ahead of this feature, with surface dew points rising into the 50s across Kansas by Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile a cold front will be surging south across western South Dakota and moving into northwest Nebraska. As the lead wave approaches the area late Wednesday afternoon, some light rain showers may develop as mid-level warm air advection increases. Cold air advection will be under way behind the cold front across northwest Nebraska, where highs will reach the lower 40s around noontime before falling during the afternoon. Elsewhere highs in the lower to mid 50s are expected ahead of the front across north central through southwest Nebraska. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2019 Weather becomes interesting Wednesday night as the lead shortwave quickly moves northeast across the region. All models have at least some light precipitation amounts across western and north central Nebraska, with the NAM and NAM-Nest continuing to be a bit farther west and have heavier precipitation amounts across the area, especially along a line from Imperial to Ainsworth and points east. There is a decent amount of moisture with this system, with PWATS rising to near 0.80 inches before the onset of precipitation. This is partly due to mid and upper level moisture that was pulled north from the remnants of tropical storm Raymond south of Baja. This is a fast moving system, with only about a 6 to 8 hour period of precipitation expected. The official forecast has the heaviest precipitation amounts nearing one quarter of an inch across far eastern north central Nebraska around O'Neill. Amounts decrease steadily to the west with less than a tenth of an inch across the Panhandle. This will be a rain changing to snow event from west to east, and regardless of how much precipitation falls will have to watch for wet untreated surfaces possibly freezing as temperatures fall through the 20s later Wednesday night. As far as snowfall, the heavier amounts near 1 inch are currently forecast to remain across northwest Nebraska. Will continue to monitor the forecast trends regarding this system. The southwest upper level low fills and moves east Thursday into Friday. Models continue to indicate any light precipitation associated with this should mostly remain south of the area. During the weekend we transition back to northwest flow aloft, with mild Pacific air in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 VFR is expected throughout western and north central Nebraska overnight, Tuesday and Tuesday evening. Dry air will remain across the region. Weak Pacific high pressure across the cntl and nrn Plains will be replaced by an elongated sfc low pressure trof Tuesday. This will ultimately lead to increasing moisture and potentially, low clouds or fog Wednesday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Taylor LONG TERM...Taylor AVIATION...CDC