666 FXUS61 KBGM 190813 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 313 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A system finishes moving through this morning, after causing a light wintry mix mainly in Central New York east of Interstate 81. The rest of today will be fairly quiet, though for tonight through Wednesday some light snow showers or flurries will be possible at times from the Twin Tiers northward. The next low pressure system will bring rain Thursday night into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 110 AM Update... Final enhanced band of precipitation is in the process of pivoting through the eastern zones early this morning, taking a bit longer to exit than previously expected. Temperatures continue to be very touchy, with an inch or two of slushy accumulation possible in Sullivan-Delaware-Otsego counties and far eastern Madison-Oneida counties, especially higher elevations. Outside of the deeper-moisture band, crystals are having a tough time getting generated and so drizzle/freezing drizzle will occur on the edges of the precipitation. That being said, temperatures in general have been running a degree or two higher than had been forecast, and road temperatures at least via the sensors we know of appear to be in the mid to upper 30s. So at this time, figuring travel impacts will be rather limited even in the advisory zones, though bridges-overpasses perhaps a little more vulnerable compared to other roadways. Previous discussion... At 930 PM updated weather grid with newer top down forecast builder grids and adjusted snow and ice amounts. Still looking at a trace to 2 inches over northern Sullivan Co, Delaware Co., Otsego and parts of Oneida Co. Additional we expect a very light amount of freezing drizzle/freezing rain too in these areas and will continue advisory with no significant adjustments. This is a marginal advisory event with valley locations likely not seeing any issues. The main forecast concern remains early Tuesday, as deeper moisture and lift take a westward swing into our Catskill and Pocono zones, tied to deepening coastal low pressure and an upper trough lifting northeast through the region. Confidence in a period of steady light precipitation is fairly high, but as for confidence in the exact type of precipitation, not so much. The lowest few thousand feet above ground level are fairly isothermal, and also it is very questionable whether saturation reaches a sufficient depth to produce ice crystals/ snow flakes, or will we just be stuck with supercooled water droplets and resultant light rain/freezing rain. At this time, we're leaning towards the latter, with areas that are below 32F at the surface more likely to see light freezing rain/freezing drizzle than light snow. Thus, we cut back some on snowfall accumulations (now under an inch), but retained the likelihood of a light glazing of ice. Due to potential travel concerns, we'll hoist another Winter Weather Advisory later tonight into early Tuesday morning for Oneida, Otsego, and Delaware counties. For areas farther west, precipitation looks much lighter and more spotty, with only patches of drizzle/freezing drizzle foreseen. Tuesday, much of the light precipitation should shut off during the morning, leading to just a cloudy day (plenty of residual low-level moisture). Daytime highs should range from the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... 305 am update... High pressure move overhead on Wednesday and night and drifts eastward through the day on Thursday. As the high moves to our east, southerly flow develops out ahead of our next system. Temperatures should climb into the 40s for most of the region and possibly low 50s for parts of NE PA. The ridging should hold through at least 00Z Friday and the period is looking dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 310 am update... Models are in good agreement that a cold front enters Western NY by early Friday morning and crosses the region through the day Friday. Non-diurnal trend through the night Thursday with temperatures warming through dawn Friday. The whole area will be above freezing, so precipitation will fall as rain. However, colder air will quickly advect in behind the front and may lead to some lake effect rain showers turning to snow Friday night and persisting through Saturday morning. Model agreement this weekend diverges significantly. The flow appears like it will be fairly zonal and a fast moving system may track just to our south Saturday into Sunday. Confidence remains quite low at this time on the timing/track of this system, but a blend of model guidance does give some low chance PoP at this time for Saturday into Sunday morning. Overall, the pattern does appear to stay mostly zonal and fairly active as we head into next week and colder air remains trapped across northern Canada. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... System will finish passing through the area this morning, though impacts of rain mixing to snow will likely only impact the KRME terminal; ceilings also lowering into IFR-LIFR level as the final band of mixed precipitation pivots through. KRME will only gradually improve, getting to higher end MVFR mid afternoon onward. For the other terminals, MVFR to fuel alternate ceilings will be quite common early this morning and in the case of KBGM abundant trapped low level moisture will cause LIFR for awhile. KAVP-KSYR will be fairly quick to improve from MVFR to VFR as ceilings lift above 3 kft agl, but other terminals will generally be stuck with at least an MVFR deck. Winds through the period will be variable or light northwest. Outlook... Late Tuesday night through Wednesday...Spotty flurries/lingering MVFR ceilings at NY terminals, especially KSYR-KITH-KBGM. Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night through Friday...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and rain showers as low pressure system passes. Friday night...Snow showers/flurries could bring restrictions, mainly the NY terminals. KAVP perhaps an MVFR ceiling. Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ009- 037-046-057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...DJN/MDP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...DJN