598 FXUS63 KICT 190523 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1123 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Current satellite shows a rather progressive pattern with a series of frontal systems moving across the country. The first front comes through this afternoon. This front will not bring much if any CAA into the region. Winds have already shifted to the northwest but the the CAA remains very weak and is not expected to drop temperatures much if at all. In fact the westerly component of the winds will induce some downslope flow over the region which will keep the temperatures warm today and tomorrow. This will set up some nice days for Monday and Tuesday and WAA will also dominate the region. There will be little no moisture transport during this period keeping the precipitation chances down. Temperatures will respond nicely and will remain above normal. Tuesday night and Wednesday the next front will start to encroach on the region. Unlike the previous frontal systems that have come through the area in recent weeks, this system will have a good amount of moisture transport preceding it. Additionally, the all the models initialized about 3-4 hours slow in comparison to the current satellite imagery. This indicates the moisture transport and clouds are likely to come in a little quicker than currently forecast for Wednesday. This will like put a damper on the temperatures for Wednesday. Lowered them some from the previous forecast in response but could see them a little cooler. In addition to the lower temperatures, this system will likely have the first shower and thunderstorm activity for the CWA in several weeks. Most the shower activity is expected to be further to the north but the orientation and the available forcing with the front indicate a rather good chance for some rain over entire CWA at this point. By Wednesday night, the front will have passed and temperatures will come tumbling down. Winds will shift from the south to a more northerly direction, pick up and become gusty. Winds look to approach advisory criteria in a few areas but at this point, it is too soon to go with an advisory. CAA will dominate the region through the end of the week. Temperatures are expected to be a little below normal for this time of year Thursday. Unlike past frontal systems, this one will not clear the skies out after the main front passes. As the low pressure center passes to the southeast, the upper level low will hang back in the Rockies and wait for the next system. This orientation of the upper low in the Rockies to the progressive surface low in the Middle Mississippi Valley will keep the mid level moisture in the region and make Thursday a cloudy, windy and raw day. The rain will diminish some during the day Thursday but will not entirely end as drizzle is likely to persist through the day. Additionally, moisture transport will not cease through the period as the next weather system will be approaching from the Four Corners area. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 The extended range looks to remain rather active as the second weather system will be approaching the region. This next system will be in phase with the upper level through. Moisture transport is much weaker but looks to remain good enough to allow for some rain during the day Friday and into Saturday. Unlike Wednesday night's/Thursday's front, this front will track the upper level low directly over the CWA. This will have the affect of bringing colder air to the region which will bring the possibility of snow into the the region. While confidence is low at this point in the forecast, the long range models do agree on the snow changing to rain or drizzle during the day on Friday then changing back to light snow or flurries Saturday. This system will have a decent high pressure system behind it which is polar in origin. This high pressure will keep the CAA in the region for much of the weekend and keep temperatures in the normal to just below normal range. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Expect surface winds to gradually to return to the south by Tue afternoon. Could even see some low level wind shear develop across central and south central KS by tue evening, as the low level jet increases ahead of the next system. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Fire danger will remain very high over parts of central Kansas this afternoon, especially along the I-70 corridor. This is due to the continued dry weather and completely curred ground. This means it will not take much wind for the fire danger to get into the very high category for the next few days. Tuesday the extent of the very high fire danger will be limited to Russell and Barton counties ahead of the next system. By Wednesday, the next front will have moved into the region and will bring the fire danger back down in Central Kansas. Areas of the Flint Hills will remain in the very high category ahead of the front Wednesday. This will be highly dependent on the speed of the Wednesday's system. Currently models appear to be depicting the approaching system slower than current conditions indicate. This may keep the fire danger in check for Wednesday. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 37 67 50 66 / 0 0 0 60 Hutchinson 36 67 48 66 / 0 0 0 50 Newton 39 66 47 64 / 0 0 0 60 ElDorado 39 66 49 65 / 0 0 0 70 Winfield-KWLD 37 68 50 66 / 0 0 0 70 Russell 35 70 46 67 / 0 0 0 40 Great Bend 34 69 46 68 / 0 0 0 50 Salina 37 67 47 66 / 0 0 0 60 McPherson 36 66 47 64 / 0 0 0 60 Coffeyville 39 67 47 67 / 0 0 0 60 Chanute 39 65 46 65 / 0 0 0 60 Iola 39 65 46 65 / 0 0 0 60 Parsons-KPPF 39 65 47 66 / 0 0 0 60 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...ELM