127 FXUS61 KRLX 182340 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 640 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak systems early this week give way to high pressure mid week. Stronger system for the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 600 PM Monday... Did some fine tuning to the forecast even though it is still on track for the most part. Added in a little more drizzle this evening matching up with radar and observations. Also, added more for Tuesday especially in the mountains and took out freezing drizzle for most places except for the highest elevations in the northeast mountains. Tweaked temperatures and they came in slightly warmer by a degree or so and with road temps not below freezing as well, opted for just drizzle in the lowlands and with some freezing drizzle in the highest elevations. With the short wave coming in Tuesday afternoon switching over all precip chances to rain in the lowlands and mostly snow for the highest elevations with a mix in the lower valleys of the mountains through the evening. Minimal precip accumulations are expected through tomorrow with the mountains, particularly around Snowshoe, having the best chances for some snow accumulations and higher rain amounts elsewhere in that area. As of 1230 PM Monday... Overall, general idea in terms of forecast in the near term period remains the same. Upper low moving into the mid Ohio Valley will move across the area later today and tonight, with increasing low level moisture as it does so. This will set the stage for the possibility of patchy drizzle tonight, with the possibility of patchy freezing drizzle across the mountains. Due to the overall isolated nature, and very light amounts anticipated, elected not to issue any winter weather headlines concerning this, but will put a mention in the HWO and have future shifts monitor the potential. Better chances for precipitation occur on Wednesday as a second upper shortwave cross the area. Low ceilings, and areas of light precipitation, are expected. Model soundings would suggest a continuation of drizzle across the forecast area, but could be enough lift during the event tomorrow to warrant light rain or even light snow showers across the higher terrain. General inclination is to lean towards mainly drizzle on Wednesday, but in keeping with consistency with surrounding offices went with slight chance rain/snow showers. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Monday... Upper trough axis swings across Tuesday night with enough forcing to generate a few showers, with snow showers in the mountains. Model soundings show moisture thins sufficiently to put ice nucleation in question overnight so some patchy light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will be possible, again mainly in the mountains. Upper ridging builds in for the remainder of the short term with dry conditions Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... Forecast uncertainty increases dramatically during the long term as models have trouble resolving what happens to a series of closed lows over the southwest U.S. and eastern Pacific. Models are varying a lot from run to run and model to model in this difficult pattern so stayed close to the blended model solution with forecast details. This results in increasing rain chances Thursday and Thursday night, followed by varying PoPs Friday into the weekend as there is a potential for several disturbances to impact the region. There is some potential for snow or a rain snow mix at times over the weekend, but that will hinge on eventual low track and surface temperatures, which are again very low confidence at this time frame. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 640 PM Monday... MVFR CIGs will persist into the night with the possibility of IFR CIGs affecting all sites besides CKB/HTS in the early morning. CIGs will likely erode somewhat in the afternoon from south to north on Tuesday although they will make a comeback from the west as another slightly stronger short wave approaches the area. Soundings indicate plenty of moisture at the boundary layer and with a trough overhead that low stratus may even persist longer through the morning at some locations especially in the mountains. With a weak pressure gradient and high pressure ridge building in, boundary layer flow will be weak causing winds to be light and mainly westerly. Possible drizzle overnight in the mountains becoming more widespread later in the morning. Increasing moisture and lift through the afternoon will promote rain chances and IFR/MVFR CIGs for all terminals into the evening. No significant restrictions to VIS are expected at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Not the greatest confidence with IFR CIGs overnight and the stratus may not make it over some sites. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible Friday and Friday night in rain. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/SL NEAR TERM...SL/JZ SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...ABE AVIATION...SL