516 
FXUS63 KEAX 182333
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
533 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 146 PM CST MON NOV 18 2019

A quiet and very pleasant weather pattern will continue into the
middle part of the week. An upstream mid level ridge is providing
the area with good NW flow aloft, which will continue to usher mid
and upper level clouds to the southeast through the day. A well
defined back edge of the cloud deck is apparent in satellite
imagery in eastern Kansas, so should this western edge of the
clouds move east with time we could see a bit of a spike in mid
afternoon temperatures, perhaps into the lower 60s. Further east
into central Missouri, there is a much smaller chance for clearing
skies, so will have more confidence in temperatures remaining in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Radar echoes over the last several
hours have been indicating some showers, however forecast
soundings indicate a very dry subcloud layer below the 6-8 kft
ceilings, thus providing more of a virga environment as opposed to
actual rain showers. Have introduced some very slight chance PoPs
across central Missouri for the next few hours, but it's unlikely
that any precipitation will actually accumulate, instead expecting
some sprinkles across those area.

As the mid level ridge moves in, expect the currently meager
chances for any precipitation to dwindle even more. By Tuesday and
Wednesday expect nearly zero chance for rain. Temperatures will be
on the rise as the ridge becomes more of a dominant player for the
immediate area. Southerly flow will commence during the day on
Tuesday, and will continue through the day on Wednesday. Daytime
highs on Tuesday will likely get into the lower 60s area-wide,
with perhaps an exception of central and NE Missouri, where
temperatures will likely hover around the mid 50s. The southerly
surface winds continue on Wednesday and the mid level ridge
becomes more firmly in place which should get temperatures 15+
degrees above normal for Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be on the
increase, considering a tight surface gradient and decent mid day
mixing. It will be conceivable that surface winds around 15 to 20
mph will gust to around 30 mph at times on Wednesday. 
Temperatures will likely jump into the mid 60s, with perhaps an 
outside shot at upper 60s to maybe 70 along and south of the 
Missouri River. 

Wednesday night will mark a wholesale change in the pattern, as
light to moderate rain moves in for Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The mid level ridge moves off to the east, and southwest
flow aloft spreads over the area. A good push of warm and moist
air, with dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s will provide at
least some chance for some thunder Wednesday night. While the main
trough will remain well off to the west, there should be at least
one, if not two shortwave troughs embedded within the SW'ly flow
aloft which should kick off widespread rain, with some isolated
thunderstorms. Overall QPF across the area should be around 1/4",
but some area, especially northern Missouri could see around 1" of
liquid rain by early Thursday morning. 

A colder air mass appears to be in store for the end of the week,
into the weekend, with temperatures more in line with late
November normals. The end of the week and weekend look a bit 
uncertain regarding potential precipitation type. ECMWF would 
indicate another shortwave trough in the SW'ly flow aloft bringing
some precipitation northward into the post frontal (colder)
regime. While snow at this point looks to be possible yet
unlikely, it's also pretty unlikely that this system would yield
much in the way of high impact winter weather for Friday/Saturday. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST MON NOV 18 2019

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd. A couple isolated 
thundershowers are movg into NW MO however, they will stay north 
of all the TAF site except STJ where VCSH is in the TAF thru 02Z.
Otrw...just bkn mid-lvl clouds thru 03Z before skies clr tonight.
High clouds are expected tomorrow. Winds will be out of the SW 
tonight before veering to the WNW behind the front tonight. Winds 
are then expected to back to the west tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...73