617 FXUS63 KOAX 182328 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 528 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 154 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 Through Tuesday Night Weak upper level disturbance combined with a surface trough moving through the area has created a few sprinkles along/east of the MO River this afternoon, and that will continue to affect western IA through about 6 pm. Otherwise, it's another warm day with afternoon highs in the mid 50s east to mid 60s west. Otherwise, decreasing northwesterly winds tonight with generally clear skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Another beautiful day Tuesday, with light and variable winds to start, but switching to the southeast by the end of the day. Highs again in the mid 50s to lower 60s. And still a very mild night Tuesday night with dry conditions and lows only in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday through Thursday Starting off dry Wednesday morning, but rain chances dramatically increase Wednesday afternoon/evening as the next trough moves out of the 4-corners region. This induces lee cyclogenesis over southeast CO, which eventually moves through southeast NE and southwest IA. Models are actually in very good agreement with the surface low track. Fortunately temps warm significantly ahead of the low, highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s again, so this will mostly be rain, and generous rain at that, which will end a fairly dry period that we've experienced for the last month. There could also be thunder along/south of I80, and then the rain could change to snow in northeast NE by midnight through early Thursday morning. And fortunately, the heaviest QPF will be transitioning to the northeast at that time. Still, looking for up to an inch of snow in northeast NE, generally northwest of a line from Columbus to Sioux City, with rainfall up to an inch south of there. There could be a few lingering snow showers north of Omaha Thursday morning, but any accumulating snow would be over by then Certainly blustery late Wednesday night through Thursday with northwest winds increasing to 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Friday Models do indicate that the southern stream of the trough moves through the southern Plains Friday. The GFS is a little farther south than the ECMWF, which could bring isolated showers to southeast NE and southwest IA, but the confidence is low. Saturday through Monday The remainder of the forecast should be dry and pretty decent, with nearly or slightly above normal temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Not bad for almost of the end of November. It could be, and has been much worse. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 526 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2019 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a few mid/high clouds passing overhead. Otherwise, surface winds will remain around 10-15kts out of the northwest with a gradual decrease in speeds overnight. Light surface winds are expected on Tuesday as a ridge of surface high pressure moves overhead. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Kern