980 FXUS61 KBGM 181946 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 246 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal storm system will bring a bit of rain, or a light wintry mix, mainly east of Interstate 81, tonight into Tuesday. Later Tuesday and Wednesday will turn out brisk and colder, with some light snow showers or flurries from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 230 pm update... Lower clouds continue to hang tough for areas near and east of I-81 this afternoon, while breaks in the lower clouds have developed across the Finger Lakes. This has led to an E-W thermal gradient, with readings generally in the 40s across the Finger Lakes region, while areas farther east in the thicker clouds have been stuck mainly in the 30s. The main forecast concern remains late tonight into early Tuesday, as deeper moisture and lift take a westward swing into our Catskill and Pocono zones, tied to deepening coastal low pressure and an upper trough lifting northeast through the region. Confidence in a period of steady light precipitation is fairly high, but as for confidence in the exact type of precipitation, not so much. The lowest few thousand feet above ground level are fairly isothermal, and also it is very questionable whether saturation reaches a sufficient depth to produce ice crystals/ snow flakes, or will we just be stuck with supercooled water droplets and resultant light rain/freezing rain. At this time, we're leaning towards the latter, with areas that are below 32F at the surface more likely to see light freezing rain/freezing drizzle than light snow. Thus, we cut back some on snowfall accumulations (now under an inch), but retained the likelihood of a light glazing of ice. Due to potential travel concerns, we'll hoist another Winter Weather Advisory later tonight into early Tuesday morning for Oneida, Otsego, and Delaware counties. For areas farther west, precipitation looks much lighter and more spotty, with only patches of drizzle/freezing drizzle foreseen. Tuesday, much of the light precipitation should shut off during the morning, leading to just a cloudy day (plenty of residual low-level moisture). Daytime highs should range from the upper 30s-mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 pm update... A W-NW flow, with associated low-level cold advection, will set up for this period. Sounding profiles also continue to show quite a bit of low-level moisture, so stratocumulus clouds should be plentiful for much of CNY/NEPA, with the best chance for a few breaks in the clouds over the southern Poconos in NEPA. Upper troughiness into early Wednesday, along with some lake generated instability, will probably lead to scattered rain/snow showers, trending more towards snow showers/flurries with time. Very shallow moisture should keep intensities light. Lows Tuesday night should be within a few degrees of 32, with highs Wednesday in the upper 30s-lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1230 pm update... On the large-scale, an upper-level trough is expected to sharpen up a bit later this week into next weekend, extending from central Canada down into the Great Lakes region. This will lead to falling heights aloft across NY/PA, eventually causing a return to unsettled and seasonably chilly conditions. As for the daily sensible weather, Thursday looks like the mildest day of the period, with a broad SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front. As this front nears and then crosses CNY/NEPA, rain showers will become likely Thursday night into Friday. Decent cold air advection post-frontal passage should lead to lake enhanced rain/snow showers Friday afternoon, going over to all snow showers/flurries Friday night into Saturday. Later in the weekend, another fast moving cold front is expected to move across the region, but this system looks weaker and more moisture starved than its predecessor, so associated shower activity looks fairly light and inconsequential from this early vantage point. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 18z update... Persistent low cloudiness and assorted restrictions (IFR at KBGM, IFR to fuel alternate at KAVP, and MVFR at KRME) will continue this afternoon across our eastern-most terminal sites. Farther west, the mass of lower clouds has begun to break up, thus lengthy periods of VFR are foreseen at KSYR, KITH, and KELM through the afternoon and into the early evening period. Overnight, lower clouds will once again become entrenched throughout CNY/NEPA, with widespread IFR-fuel alternate restrictions. Patchy drizzle and fog appears most likely at KBGM and KAVP, with temperatures perhaps cold enough late at night for a bit of light snow at KRME. Tuesday, early morning lower clouds will slowly lift over time. However, a return to VFR before 18z is only likely for KAVP and KSYR. Outlook... Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR. Fri...Restrictions likely in lower clouds and rain showers, perhaps changing to snow showers by afternoon. Sat...Snow showers/flurries could bring restrictions, at least in the morning, most likely to occur at KSYR and KRME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-037-046-057. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...