060 FXUS63 KFGF 171552 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 952 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 922 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Freezing drizzle chances have lessened as better low level forcing and moisture depth moves east of the area deeper into northern Minnesota. DOT reports and a call to Beltrami SO indicated some isolated to scattered icy conditions developed early this morning from freezing drizzle in northwest Minnesota, mainly north of US Highway 2. Anticipating any residual impacts to travel should lessen as the morning continues. Looking ahead to the rest of the day, extensive stratus throughout the day within the post cold frontal air mass should hinder temperatures from increasing much more than currently observed, ie in the upper 20s to mid 30s. UPDATE Issued at 801 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Still can't rule out a few pockets of freezing drizzle or flurries this morning, but trends are following model expectations so far. Held off on any major changes, but we'll monitor. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 403 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Main trough axis extend from northwest MN into northeast SN, with a lower and mid level rotation on WV imagery east of Lake Winnipeg in Canada. Low level moisture advection within lower levels is keeping stratus deck in place and depth of moisture advection within this layer may be supporting pockets of flurries or even freezing drizzle early this morning as it rotates eastward (better depth of saturation is shown by models in northwest MN). Surface reports of precip have been flurries so far where temps deeper in the cold air (32 or lower), though ahead of surface trough axis there are vis restrictions in the 3-5 mile range where temps range reported as BR from 28-36 and it is possible this is associated with very light drizzle. Sounding analysis indicates that as cold air moves south and east drier air "shrinks" the depth of the saturated layer lowering confidence in any precip (after 12-14Z). Also, the saturated layer eventually drops to the -7 to -9C range which is cold enough to generally support some ice introduction (though not predominant). This could be why precip reports where colder air is behind surface trough are mainly light snow/flurries. Still, concern that any freezing drizzle could cause localized problems if/where it develops. While reports are sparse, I felt more comfortable playing it safe with Special Weather Statement issuance during the window of most likely development through 14Z. After that precip potential transitions eastward. Next period of concern in the short term is with another series of mid level shortwave troughs moving through mid level. Organization is less defined, however we see several periods of positive vorticity advection hath will support rounds of light precip potential, with the strongest this evening and overnight tonight when CAMs are showing north to south orientated axis of precip migrate west to east across eastern ND into northwest MN. Precip type this evening through Monday morning is a nightmare to nail down, as increasing WAA aloft will result in a warm nose in the 1-4C range and even max Tw aloft along this precip axis when saturation occurs is in the 0-2C range supportive of partial melting even with ice introduction. Precip signal is very light, but potential will be there for drizzle, freezing drizzle, light snow, and even light sleet. Low confidence in transition, but if freezing drizzle/sleet were to occur I have concern there could be potential for glaze of ice. Surface temps may hold steady or even rise above freezing tonight for some areas throwing another wrinkle into the forecast and lowering confidence in impacts. Will let subsequent shifts fine tune timing/transition as that will be a dynamic that could change with any delay in WAA aloft or less precip coverage. After sunrise Monday WAA is only increasing, with temperatures warming into the 40s, and if there are any pockets of light precip rotating through the region it should be mainly light drizzle during the daytime period. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 00Z Tue - 12Z Wed Upper level air pattern is progressive. Upper level trough will move across southwest Ontario Mon night. Secondary short wave follows Tue. Short waves will produce light precip in the eastern zones. Also cooler air moves into the area Mon night except for the northeast zones. Cooler air follows into the northeast zones Tue afternoon. Some freezing drizzle may mix in with snow Mon evening in the eastern zones. Should change to all snow later Mon night. Light snow may linger into Tue for the northeast zones. Short wavelength upper ridge is expected Tue afternoon/evening with another short wave for Tue night. Wed - Sat Very light snow will occur with Wed short wave for much of the area. Light rain may be mixed in. Upper level trough will follow Wed night and bring cooler weather briefly in for Thu. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2019 Widespread MVFR stratus with pockets of IFR stratus continue to impact eastern ND and northwest MN this morning, with a brief period of VFR conditions this afternoon or early evening before the next system moves into the region. A few flurries or even pockets of freezing drizzle can't be ruled out through 14Z this morning. Another round of wintry precip including the potential for freezing drizzle or sleet will be possible this evening through Monday morning across the region. Coverage and confidence is too low to include mention in TAFs at this time as impacts at terminals are uncertain. Northwest winds10-15kt will decerase below 10kt today and eventually shift to the south possibly becoming calm late tonight in MN. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...DJR