884 FXUS63 KICT 170000 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 Tonight-Sunday: Clouds will continue to increase/thicken during the evening and overnight. Front should move through most of the area during the night. Low temperatures were trended up given clouds and wind, but was not able to adequately to reflect hourly temperature trends showing the increase in temperatures immediately behind the front. Continued low chances of spotty light rain or more likely sprinkles. Small chances will persist into Sunday morning in far southeast KS. Decreasing clouds and downslope flow should result in a late day rebound for much of the area, although afternoon temperatures in far southeast KS may be stunted by slow to clear clouds. Monday-Tuesday: Increasingly zonal upper flow and dry air will result in dry and warmer than normal temperatures. Temperatures may not be warm enough depending on amount of downslope flow and high clouds. -Howerton .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 Confidence in this period has decreased from 24 hours ago. Both 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC runs of GFS/ECMWF have diverged with the complex interaction of cutoff E Pacific low and various waves in the northern stream. Suspicions are slower ECMWF is more likely closer to the right solution, and not sure the first closed low would be kicked out as quick as GFS suggests. Latest NBM / initialization grids suggest the onset of precipitation on Wednesday afternoon, with an 18hr break Thursday afternoon-Thursday night and then chances persisting through Saturday. Highest chances are Wednesday night. Suspect precipitation is likely at some point in this period, and will not rain as long as forecast, but exactly when is very uncertain. Not convinced that current forecast is the right solution. Some of the area will be in the warm sector, and with increasing low level moisture have kept mention of some thunderstorms. Cooler air behind cold front may support brief period of snow or wintry mix prior to drier air arriving -Howerton && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 The "Star" of this forecast is a cold front that at 23Z extended from SC Nebraska, thru NW KS, to the NW TX Panhandle. The front will push SE across most of KS tonight, perhaps as far SE as I-35 ~12Z. Lower-deck moisture is limited & as such no more than isold sprinkles should accompany the front along with the customary S/SW to NW/N windshift. Post-frontal winds should not exceed 20kts sustained. There is the potential for MVFR stratocu ~2,500ft right after frontal passage but would be shortlived. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019 Gusty south winds and relatively dry air will result in elevated fire danger on Monday across central and south central KS. Very high GFDI is forecast roughly west of a line from Salina to Hutchinson Monday afternoon. -Howerton && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 42 58 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 Hutchinson 41 59 37 68 / 10 10 0 0 Newton 42 55 38 64 / 10 10 0 0 ElDorado 42 56 37 65 / 20 10 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 41 58 37 67 / 10 10 0 0 Russell 39 58 38 68 / 10 0 0 0 Great Bend 39 57 37 68 / 10 0 0 0 Salina 41 58 38 68 / 10 10 0 0 McPherson 40 58 38 67 / 10 10 0 0 Coffeyville 40 56 36 63 / 10 20 0 0 Chanute 41 55 36 60 / 20 20 0 0 Iola 41 55 36 59 / 20 20 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 40 55 35 61 / 20 20 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PJH LONG TERM...PJH AVIATION...EPS FIRE WEATHER...PJH