851 FXUS66 KLOX 162202 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 202 PM PST Sat Nov 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS...16/1237 PM. Clearing skies and offshore winds will keep temperatures warm this weekend, with near record high temperatures on Sunday. Some areas will be windy, especially through passes and canyons. A pattern change will occur around mid week as a low pressure system moves in bringing clouds, cooler temperatures and a chance of rain and mountain snow. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...16/158 PM. Main impacts in the short term are the near record-breaking temperatures expected on Sunday and the moderate Santa Ana wind event leading to critical fire weather conditions (fire discussion below). The offshore pressure gradient and resulting northeast winds have been higher than anticipated with winds making it all the way into the Oxnard Plain, at least for a brief period. Winds remain gusty in the foothills and mountains at 35-45 mph with the LAX-DAG gradient at only -3.1 mb at 1pm. Humidities have mostly stayed out of single digit territory today, but several areas of eastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties have had a couple of hours of critical fire weather conditions today. Temperatures reached into the 87-92 degree range from Oxnard to Malibu and above forecasted highs. Minimum temperatures tonight will be tricky with cooling prior to midnight, then mixing winds will keep many foothills and breezy areas well above normal. Some locations will be 15-20 degrees warmer tonight compared to last night. For Sunday, gusty northeast winds 35-55 mph will become more widespread prior to sunrise and extend through midday. Given the warm air mass in place and what happened today, it will be easy to reach or exceed record high temperatures for many valleys and coasts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties especially closer to the ocean. Highs will be 90-95 degrees along with humidities less than 10 percent. These conditions in combination with gusty winds and very dry fuel moistures will generate red flag warning criteria through Sunday afternoon. It will remain breezy in the foothills and mountains Sunday night with poor overnight humidity recovery. Monday will remain a warm and dry day with elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions in the Ventura and Los Angeles County foothills and mountains. Locally gusty northeast winds should remain below advisory levels. By afternoon would expect a reversal to onshore flow for the coasts and valleys with temperatures starting to cool later in the day. However, a few locations could flirt with record highs again prior to the arrival of the seabreeze. Monday night and Tuesday will be a period of transition as heights fall and the flow turns much more onshore during the period. Mid and high clouds will increase on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees cooler than Monday. A cold front will also be dropping down the central coast in the afternoon and could generate an isolated shower. This storm system is associated with low pressure circulation currently viewable on GOES imagery in the northern Pacific Ocean near 41N/165W. .LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...16/152 PM. Our first storm system of the season will arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper low closes off near SFO Bay and drops over southwest California, possibly lingering through Thursday. There has been significant differences in deterministic model data on exactly what storm track this system will take and that makes a big difference on how much moisture it will bring to the region. The ECM has been the most generous as it keeps the low off the coast longer with a better jet placement and upper diffluence which could generate isolated thunderstorms and heavy downpours on Wednesday. However, the GFS takes the low inland much faster with less support for convection. At this point there is high confidence in rain for Wed-Thu, but it's still too early to pinpoint thunderstorm potential and total rain amounts. Ranges for now are zero in SLO Co. to a maximum of 0.75 inch in eastern LA Co. The ensembles support an average amount of 0.75 inch in LA, so this remains in our forecast. We will continue to closely watch this system for the potential of heavier rainfall intensities due to several new burn scars in the recent months. This system will definitely knock down temperatures with highs struggling into the mid 60s for many valleys and coasts Wed-Thu. Snow levels will drop to 6000 ft or less during this event, so it's likely we will see the first mountain snow of the season as well. By Friday, precipitation should come to an end as this system moves to our east. High pressure will build in from the north with increasing heights and a rebound in temperatures heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION...16/1707Z. At 1700Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 500 feet. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius. Overall, high confidence in 18Z TAF package. Once current MVFR VSBYs across LAX coast dissipate by 20Z, CAVU conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Offshore flow will strengthen tonight and Sunday morning with LLWS and turbulence likely across the mountains and valleys. KLAX...High confidence in 18Z TAF. Current MVFR VSBYs could linger until 20Z. KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF. CAVU conditions will persist through the TAF period. && .MARINE...16/158 PM. For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds continuing through this evening. For Sunday and Monday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. On Tuesday and Wednesday, high confidence in SCA level winds and seas with a 20% chance of Gale force gusts. On Thursday, moderate confidence in conditions dropping below SCA levels as winds and seas subside. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in current forecast. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday, high confidence in winds and seas increasing to SCA levels. On Thursday, winds and seas are expected to drop below SCA levels. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. There is a 70% chance of SCA level northeast winds Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon from Ventura southward to Malibu. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday. On Wednesday, there is a 60% chance of SCA level westerly winds. && .BEACHES...16/158 PM. A moderately high northwest swell with a long period between 16-18 seconds will continue to affect the coastal waters adjacent to the Central Coast through Sunday morning. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY remains in effect through 10 AM Sunday morning for the Central Coast. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT also remains in effect for the beaches of Ventura County and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast through 3 PM Sunday afternoon. Although most of the swell energy will remain across the outer waters, some limited swell energy will continue to move into the the Inner Waters south of Point Conception. The main focus for elevated surf and strong rip currents will be aimed for the exposed west facing beaches of Ventura County and exposed west facing beaches across the Santa Barbara South Coast. Elevated surf between 3-6 feet is expected for these locations through Sunday afternoon. With high temperatures along the coast expected to be in the 80s to lower 90s this weekend, local beaches will likely be busy this weekend. The combination of elevated surf with long period swells will bring the likelihood of dangerous RIP currents to these locations. Surf is not expected to be as high across Los Angeles County west facing beaches due to less swell energy. && .FIRE WEATHER...16/1242 PM. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Ventura County and for the mountains, and Santa Clarita and San Fernando Valleys of L.A. County for 1 AM to 6 PM Sunday. Northeast winds gusting to 20 to 40 mph with isolated gusts are affecting the wind prone areas of all four counties. Minimum humidities are lowering to 15 to 25 percent range, with a few lower elevations of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties down to 10 percent. Elevated to locally brief critical conditions are expected, but staying under Red Flag Warning duration criteria today. Late tonight through Sunday, the northeast winds will weaken some over Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo County, while strengthening over Los Angeles and Ventura Counties with gusts in the 30 to 50 mph range, with isolated higher gusts in the most wind-prone areas. Widespread minimum humidities will fall into the 8 to 15 percent range, and temperatures will rise to the 80's to mid 90's in many areas, near or above record highs for this time of year. This will result in widespread critical Red Flag conditions for much of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties during the warning period. Sunday night through Monday will remain warm and dry, but wind gusts will weaken significantly to 15 to 35 mph and will be confined to only the most wind prone areas. Elevated conditions will continue, but Red Flag conditions are not expected. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Sunday for zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Sunday afternoon for zones 39-40. (See LAXCFWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 2 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for zone 40. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Red Flag Warning in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for zones 240-244>246-253-254-288-547. (See LAXRFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT). A cooler and showery weather pattern is expected Wednesday through Friday next week. Brief heavy downpours are possible, especially Wednesday to Thursday morning. High surf is likely at all beaches late Tuesday through early Thursday. && $$ PUBLIC...Boldt AVIATION...RAT MARINE...RAT BEACHES...Kaplan/RAT FIRE...SMITH SYNOPSIS...Phillips weather.gov/losangeles