108 
FXUS65 KFGZ 161018
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
318 AM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies across the area
through noon Saturday then clearing. Breezy northeast winds are
possible Sunday. Otherwise, dry and mild weather to persist 
through Tuesday morning. A turn to wet and colder starts as early 
as Tuesday afternoon, and lasts through early Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Dry and fair conditions will continue Saturday. 
Mid to high level cloud cover from a low currently situated off 
the Southern California/Baja California coasts will remain over 
portions of southern Apache and Navajo Counties through the day 
Saturday.

On Sunday, the aforementioned coastal low will shift to the south
as a weak trough passes by to the north with the flow shifting 
around to become more north to northeasterly. This will bring some
gusty winds south of the high terrain on Saturday evening into 
Sunday morning, especially in favored downslope areas. This will 
also keep morning lows on the warm side in these areas. 

On Monday, heights rise again with another fair weather day before
the pattern shifts to become wet through the rest of the week. The
previously mentioned coastal low becomes absorbed back into the
main flow shifting up over the area by Tuesday evening into
Wednesday. This low takes with it moisture from Raymond drawing it
northward into our area. This will bring chances for widespread
showers by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.This will likely start 
as all rain with some mix of rain and snow possible down to around
7000-7500 ft Wednesday morning with surface temperatures near to 
around freezing. Accumulations only expected on the highest 
mountain peaks at this time. 

A much colder low will swing south Thursday into Friday. This will
bring a better chance for rain and some snow showers to the
area. The operational GFS continues to be faster and more
progressive with this system than the ECMWF. However, GEFS and EPS
means appear to take a slow approach leading to low confidence in
the operation GFS. Stay tuned as accumulating snow does look to be
a possibility more and more for areas down to 7000-7500 ft or so.
Along with that, liquid accumulations of 1-3 inches are not out 
of the question. 


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions and generally light 
winds will continue for the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Seasonably mild temperatures and dry conditions will 
continue through Sunday. Winds will generally remain light, but by 
Saturday night a weather system brushing the Four Corners will 
deliver locally gusty north to northeast winds along and south of 
the Mogollon Rim.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry weather Monday with the threat for 
showers increasing later on Tuesday. Northeast winds for most areas 
through Monday shifting to southwest on Tuesday. Wednesday will be 
wet and windy as a strong low pressure systems moves into Arizona.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ET
AVIATION...JJ 
FIRE WEATHER...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff