222 FXUS63 KILX 150930 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 330 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Mostly sunny and milder weather will be on tap across central Illinois today with afternoon high temperatures reaching the lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Clear skies and nearly calm winds beneath a ridge of high pressure have led to patchy fog development early this morning...mainly along/south of Springfield to Robinson line. The fog will dissipate by mid-morning, followed by mostly sunny skies for the balance of the day. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 40s. A weak cold front currently extending from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan into the Dakotas will sink southward into north-central Illinois later today and tonight. The boundary will be dissipating as it approaches and will have very little moisture to work with: however, think there will be an increase in mid/high clouds from the north tonight. As a result, after a mostly clear evening, skies will become partly to mostly cloudy across the board by dawn Saturday. Overnight lows will drop into the lower to middle 20s. && .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2019 Thanks to increased cloud cover and light easterly flow, highs on Saturday will be a couple of degrees cooler than today in the upper 30s to around 40. The next chance for measurable precipitation will arrive on Sunday as a short-wave dropping out of the northern Rockies digs a significant trough across the Midwest early next week. Models have been consistently showing light precip developing ahead of this wave late Saturday night across Iowa/northern Missouri, then gradually spilling into central Illinois during the day Sunday. Despite an initially dry airmass in place, think strong dynamics associated with the approaching wave will be enough to trigger light precip. As a result, have carried low chance PoPs for rain/snow across the Illinois River Valley Sunday morning...then have spread rain chances further east toward I-57 by afternoon. Once the wave passes east of the region, additional short-wave energy will dig into the mean trough position Monday/Tuesday: however, there is no clear signal for precip with any of these features. Cannot rule out a few light showers on Monday: however, will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Main impact will be continued cloudy skies and cool temps in the 40s. Once the upper trough shifts eastward and heights begin to rise, a warming trend will get underway for the middle and end of next week...resulting in near or slightly above normal temps around 50 degrees by Wednesday/Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1126 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019 The only concern for aviation tonight will be the potential for MVFR fog around SPI. High resolution guidance remain split on the coverage and intensity of any fog in west-central Illinois. Observations are already showing a reduction in visibility in that area, so will acknowledge the MVFR fog in the SPI TAF starting around 09z. Can't rule out some IFR fog, but will not go that pessimistic at this point. Otherwise, light westerly winds will prevail for the next 12-18 hours. Late in this TAF period, winds will become variable as they shift to the NW then N then NE late tomorrow into tomorrow evening, in the wake of the surface ridge center passing from SW to NE across the area. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Shimon