314 
FXUS63 KFGF 150549
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1149 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Adjusted cloud cover. Lowered lows a bit in the northeast where
skies are clear and temps are in the single digits. Raised them a
bit in the west where there are clouds and the frontal boundary
has not gone through. 


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Most areas saw some sunshine today as winds turned to the west and 
temperatures rose. The Grand Forks airport hit 44 degrees as did 
many other spots over eastern North Dakota. For tonight, the low 
clouds north of highway 2 will sag southward and cover most of the 
area again. Very late tonight into Friday morning, there could be 
some patchy fog, stratus, or freezing drizzle over central North 
Dakota. However, confidence is quite low on that possibility at this 
point, so will hold off on mentioning for now. Winds will turn back 
to the southeast on Friday, but highs will be slightly cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

For Friday night, southerly winds will be quite breezy, with clouds 
moving back over most of the FA. This will result in low 
temperatures being fairly moderate for a change.

The long term period will encompass more seasonal temperatures with 
multiple precipitation chances into next week.

Saturday through Monday

For the early portion of the weekend, there is increasing confidence 
for an area of low pressure to progress towards North Dakota, with 
precipitation chances. With a surface warm front moving to the north 
early on Saturday, southerly winds will allow for temperatures to 
rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Precipitation will start in 
the afternoon on Saturday, possibly as wintry mix due to the warmer 
temperatures, before changing to snow behind the trailing cold 
front. Some travel impacts may be possible if icing occurs, but 
confidence is still low on exact precipitation type during this 
transition. Outside of a few lingering flurries, Sunday looks to be 
cooler with highs in the lower to mid 30s.  

Precipitation chances look to return with the potential arrival of 
another Canadian low and continued 500mb troughing for Monday. 
Southerly flow returning to the area for Monday will rise 
temperatures again to the 40-degree mark, giving more chances for 
mixed precipitation before changing to snow with diurnal cooling.

Tuesday through Thursday

The pattern looks to continue being active into the latter part of 
the period. With no largely negative 500mb height anomaly hinted, 
anomalously cold air doesn't appear too likely, but meridional flow 
suggests multiple chances for snow. The current suggestion keeps at 
least isolated chances for snow throughout the middle of the week. 
Guidance agrees on a large trough in the eastern U.S., keeping us in 
northwest flow for Tuesday. Following these chances, guidance hints 
at a longwave trough over the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing 
more potential chances for snow. With the large temporal range 
between now and the middle of next week, large uncertainty still 
exists. However, the continued potential for snow with seasonal 
temperatures will be worth watching. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

MVFR ceilings at all TAF sites but KBJI which has cleared out.
This will continue for much of the night. Some FZDZ is not out of
the question in the far western forecast area, but not confident
enough to include in the KDVL TAF at this point. MVFR to IFR
ceilings will continue at all sites but KBJI for tomorrow, with
perhaps some slight improvement by the end of the period. Winds
will shift to the southeast and pick up to around 15 kts by
tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...Godon/Wasilewski
AVIATION...JR