980 
FXUS63 KFGF 141637
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1037 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Based on current observations, freezing rain chances for today
have been removed from the forecast. Skies will clear from west 
to east within the next few hours. Temperatures will approach 
normal for this time of year. Lower clouds will move into the area
in the late afternoon associated with an approaching cold front 
from the north. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A warmer day is expected today as warm air advection brings warmer
air into the Northern Plains. This warm air advection combined
with some synoptic lift from a surface low tracking across Canada
will provide chances for some snow flurries today. The best
chances for snow today remains north of Highway 2 with little to
no accumulation expected. A layer of warmer, above freezing, air 
aloft could lead to some wintry mix at times in northwest 
Minnesota.

Tonight the lower levels of the atmosphere will begin to saturate
and with a warm layer aloft drizzle will be possible. In areas
where surface temperatures remain below freezing then freezing
drizzle will be possible. Although chances look to be better later
into Friday when low level saturation further increases drizzle
remains possible Thursday night. With northwesterly flow aloft and
high pressure moving in at the surface synoptic support for any
large scale rain or snow is unlikely tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

General trend in the long term will be for warmer temperatures 
through the first couple days of next week and then trending cooler 
as 500mb flow transitions from NW flow to a more zonal transient 
pattern. Impacts for the period will be confined to light precip 
chances with weak clipper systems and precip type depending on 
thermal profiles, saturated low levels and SFC temps.  The WAA 
advection will bring an inversion to the region with temps still 
below freezing at the surface overnight Friday into Saturday 
morning. Saturated airmass with potential for freezing drizzle is 
progged to exist across the Devils Lake basin area and slowly move 
into NW MN. The possibility of light snow or freezing drizzle will 
exist until Sfc temps warm above freezing Saturday with highs 
topping out in the upper 30s to low 40s. Cooler Sunday behind a 
Saturday evening cold front with highs the 30s. Then another round 
of warm air advection and a chance for light snow, rain or mix 
before temps climb into the 40s Monday afternoon. Light snow could 
linger into Tuesday and Wednesday as another weak wave moves through 
in the active pattern. Highs temps Tuesday and Wednesday are 
expected to be in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

All terminals are VFR with clouds moving in from west to east with
lower MVFR to occasional IFR ceilings expected. Some isolated snow
flurries or mixed precipitation may occur today. Winds shifting 
to the north today and then to the east overnight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon/CAM/JZ
SHORT TERM...NC 
LONG TERM...JK 
AVIATION...NC