546 FXUS61 KBGM 141117 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 617 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring fair weather to NY and PA today and Friday. A fast moving storm will pull another shot of Arctic air across our region for Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will slide across NY and PA today, but a layer of moisture between 5000 and 10000 feet will keep clouds over our forecast area until late afternoon or early evening. Though temperatures will be a little milder than yesterday, readings will remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Winds will gust at 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon, making temperatures feel even colder. A clear, calm night will allow temperatures to drop into the lower and middle 20s Friday morning despite warm air advection aloft. Mostly sunny skies will push afternoon highs to around 40 degrees on Friday. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 330 am update... Cold arctic airmass pushes in over the region Friday night into Saturday. While the cold front drops down from the north Friday night, there is a chance for a few snow showers across the northern forecast area. However, with flow being more northerly, it will not be able to really tap into lake moisture, so if any snow showers develop, only very light accumulations will be possible. Arctic high pressure drops over the region on Saturday, bringing a very cold start to the day, with single digit lows across the north and teens from the Southern Tier into NE PA. Even with mostly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon, high temperatures will struggle to climb out of the mid to upper 20s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 340 am update... Very quiet weather is expected through at least the first half of the long term period with high pressure over the region expected into early next week. By mid week, models are in agreement that there will be a coastal low that develops, but there remains large inconsistencies on the track at this time. Being this is day 6/7 of the forecast, there is plenty of time to sort this out over the next few days. For now, a blend of models/ensembles only gives slight chance PoP this time frame, with the Euro being the only guidance of the main models that shows potential impacts to our region at this time. && .AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure across the northeast will bring VFR conditions to our terminals through Thursday night. A cloud deck around 5000-10000 feet is forecast to slowly erode Thursday afternoon. Winds will increase to around 10 knots today with gusts of 20 knots during the afternoon. Expect light and variable winds after sunset. Outlook... Friday through midday...VFR. Late Friday afternoon-evening...Possible ceiling restrictions across the NY terminals, and chance of snow showers mainly KSYR- KRME, due to a passing cold front with gusty northwest winds. Saturday through Monday...VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...DJP