105 FXUS62 KFFC 121157 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 657 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 .UPDATE... Precip is beginning to clear in far northwestern counties earlier than expected, but a few reports of snow and sleet have been reported around the area. Given the early clearing of the precip with widespread temps above freezing, we're expecting no more than a light flurry or dusting of wintry mix outside areas in the higher elevations. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 AM EST Tue Nov 12 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/... ..Brief Wintry Mix Possible in Far North Georgia This Morning... Satellite analysis this morning indicates a very impressive troughing pattern from the eastern Great Lakes down the western Appalachian then over into central Texas. Along it, radar shows a band of precip, mostly consisting of rain with reports of some sleet and snow on the rear of the line as an Arctic cold front has quickly plunged into the northwestern forecast area, which will bring unseasonably cold temperatures along with it. Behind the front, an extremely large area of subsidence shows the extent of the Arctic high pressure behind the frontal system. The center of the high currently sits in the central plains with a central pressure around 1043hPa. Throughout the morning, the cold front will continue quickly pushing southeast with the entire forecast area expected to be behind the front by noon today. Behind the front, strong gradient winds will prevail with sustained winds up to 20 mph and gusts between 25-35mph possible. A Wind Advisory has been issued through 7 PM. As the line of precip moves through the area, most of us will see a little over a half inch of rain in total with temperatures varying widely across the forecast area as the cold air move into the region. In the far northern portions of the forecast area, a race between subfreezing air moving into the area and drier air behind the front eroding away the precip will determine if and how much wintry precip could occur. Model guidance has been very consistent with this system for several days and have been pushing towards a transition from rain to a mix of snow and sleet, to a chance for an hours-worth of light snow before the precip dries up in the cold, dry airmass. Chances for any wintry precip will be primarily confined to the northernmost 2 rows of Georgia counties and will have the best chances in areas over 2000 feet in elevation. Roads in these higher elevations could become slick by early morning where temperatures fall below freezing for an extended period of time. Any accumulations of wintry precip are expected to be minor and not cause significant impacts at this time. For more details, please see the most recent Special Weather Statement. While temperatures this afternoon are expected to stall as cold air advection is countered by diurnal heating, tonight temperatures will plummet once the sun begins going down and the skies clear. These will be by far the coldest temperatures of the season with Columbus and Macon in danger of setting record low temperatures. Lows are forecast around 20 for far north Georgia and mid- to upper-20s are forecast along and southeast of the I-85 corridor. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the remainder of our forecast area where the Autumn Frost/Freeze program remains in effect. Tomorrow, the high pressure will be moving across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, and will dominate the weather pattern. Clear skies will allow high temps to climb back into the mid- to upper-40s, with light winds out of the east becoming breezy during the afternoon. Thiem LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/... No significant changes made to the long term portion of the forecast. High pressure will dominate the weather through the mid to late part of the week. By Thursday night, a low pressure wave begins to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico and should move across the central FL peninsula overnight and emerge off the NE FL coast early Friday. Aloft, a strong closed upper low will move across the SE states at the same time. The GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement than they were this time last night. There are still some slight timing differences with the GFS being just a little faster with the surface low. This system will bring the next chances for rain, mainly across east central and southern portions of the outlook area. It will be a cold rain overnight Thursday and early Friday. A coastal front looks to remain situated across the northern Gulf of Mexico...stretching just off the eastern seaboard. Models prog a couple of waves to move along this boundary for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. For now, most of the precip should stay south/east of the CWA. NListemaa AVIATION... 06Z Update... VFR conditions will start to erode away throughout the forecast area with a cold front moving through the forecast area with RA, IFR CIGS, and lowers VSBYS. Obs will likely fluctuate throughout the night between MVFR and IFR at ATL TAF sites with most likely onset between 8-10Z. IFR less likely at other TAF sites but best timing is 11-15Z for AHN/CSG and 14-16Z for MCN, timing with the frontal system and heaviest RA. VSBYs will also be up and down but most likely to fall to around 3-4SM during IFR CIG timing. Winds turning out of the NNW this morning gusting up 15-25kts this afternoon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Low on VSBYs and timing of lower CIGS. Medium on Wind gusts and timing/duration of IFR CIGS. Medium to High on all other elements up to 18Z today. High on all elements after 18Z. Thiem && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... MVFR/IFR conditions currently ongoing for ATL sites with conditions soon to get to AHN/CSG as a cold front continues to move through the area with moderate rainfall. VSBYs will fluctuate but have been 3-5SM in heavy rain. Winds behind the front will be strong out of the NNW with sustained speeds of 12-20kts with gusts up to 25-30kts. CIGS/VSBYs around ATL metro expected to rise by 14-15Z with rain clearing between 14-16Z. //ATL Confidence... 12Z Update... Low to Medium on VSBYs and duration of lower CIGS. Medium to High on all other elements up to 18Z today. High on all elements after 18Z. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 53 26 46 28 / 100 5 0 5 Atlanta 45 26 46 30 / 100 0 0 5 Blairsville 37 19 44 24 / 80 5 0 0 Cartersville 40 22 48 29 / 80 0 0 0 Columbus 54 29 51 34 / 100 0 0 5 Gainesville 46 26 45 29 / 90 0 0 0 Macon 57 28 49 31 / 90 0 0 5 Rome 39 22 49 28 / 70 0 0 0 Peachtree City 46 25 47 30 / 100 0 0 5 Vidalia 67 29 51 35 / 70 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Wednesday for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb... Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...Chattahoochee...Chattooga... Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp... DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...Floyd... Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock... Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper... Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon... Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan... Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe... Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale... Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup... Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...Washington...Webster... Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson. Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for the following zones: Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa... Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta... Crawford...Crisp...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...Dooly...Douglas... Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon... Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston... Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Marion... Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton... North Fulton...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk... Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter... Talbot...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker... Walton...Webster...White...Whitfield. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Thiem