490 FXUS63 KICT 120505 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 The main forecast challenge in the short range is the light wintry mix precipitation over most of the CWA. This precipitation is expected to end as either light snow or flurries. By the late afternoon, the snow and flurries will be coming to an end and the skies will be clearing. As this clearing occurs, a much stronger arctic front will be pushing into the region and will bring a strong re-enforcing shot of cold air. This will make for a cold night tonight and a cold day for Tuesday. While these temperatures will be the coldest so far this seasons, it is unlikely temperatures will be cold enough to reach current records. Tuesday and Wednesday will remain dry and quiet with high pressure slow to move out of the region. This will also allow the winds to be much lower than Monday. Temperatures will recover some but will remain well below normal for this time of year. Mid and lower level flow looks to remain out of the north Tuesday but will shift to a light southerly direction Wednesday as the high pressure system moves off to the east ahead of the next cold front. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 The extended range continues to look rather quiet into the weekend. The lack of any significant moisture transport into the region will keep the precipitation chances very low or out of the forecast entirely. There will be another frontal system coming through the region Thursday afternoon. This cold front will be too dry to create any precipitation. This front will bring in another shot of cold air into the region which will keep temperatures below normal for this time of year through next weekend. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Primary aviation concern: LLWS Changes since 00z TAF issuance: None Surface winds continue to decrease at this time as high pressure builds in (allowing a decreasing pressure gradient). Winds will remain gusty the longest across portions of SE KS. A relatively quick return to southerly winds will ensue from west to east through the day Tuesday. Those southerly winds will be gusty at times. By Tuesday evening, a 30-40 kt LLJ will develop across the area, leading to an increased risk of LLWS. Initially this threat will be over central KS prior to 06z/13th, but may extend across south-central and southeast Kansas just beyond the current TAF cycle. Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 Continued dry conditions over the past few weeks will make it easy for light to moderate winds to elevate the grassland fire danger index. This will be the case for Monday through Wednesday as the wind will create a very high grassland fire danger over much of the CWA. Tuesday the very high fire danger will be restricted to Central Kansas and Wednesday the very high fire danger will be prevalent over the eastern portions of the Flint Hills. The instances of very high fire danger will be limited to a few hours in the afternoon on each day. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 8 36 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 6 37 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 7 34 23 51 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 10 33 23 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 10 35 24 50 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 7 41 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 7 40 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 7 37 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 5 36 23 53 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 12 32 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 10 31 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 10 30 21 46 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 10 33 22 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...RM FIRE WEATHER...ELM