458 FXUS62 KMHX 120301 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1001 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge over the area through tonight. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday, with high pressure building in behind that front through mid week. A strong coastal low is expected to impact the area this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 955 PM Monday...Mid and high level clouds continue to stream into the region from the west at late evening. With the increase in clouds and a S/SSW flow, temperatures have actually risen several degrees and low temperatures may have already been achieved. Some of the high-resolution guidance, especially the 3km NAM show spotty showers near the coast overnight, but most of the area should remain dry. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As 3 PM Monday...A strong cold front will push through ENC during the afternoon. A band of rain along the front will push through the area along late morning into the early evening. Will continue a period of categorical pops for all areas, with expected QPF amts less than 0.5". Still appears precip will end before really cold air arrives which should limit threat for any frozen precip. Though some wet snowflakes could mix in as precip ends Tue evening, with no impacts expected. Expect a non-diurnal temp curve, with highs in the mid/upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s along the coast late morning, then falling quickly into the 40s behind the front with strong CAA during the afternoon. Windy conditions expected along the coast Tue evening into Wednesday, so will go with a Wind Advisory for gusts up to 45 mph. Please see the Tides/Coastal Flooding section for more information on coastal flood threat. High pressure will build in Tuesday night as upper trough swings through the area. Very cold air mass will surge in Tue night with lows aob freezing much of inland areas. Will go with a Freeze Watch for inland areas that have not yet seen a hard freeze this season. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 305 PM Sun...High pressure builds in Wednesday through Thursday, followed with a low pressure system developing late in the week. Wednesday and Thursday... High pressure builds across the region Wed and slides offshore Thursday. A coastal trough is forecast to develop late Thursday with an increasing threat of a few coastal showers along the coast late Thursday night into Friday. Expect high in the 40s Wednesday with lows in the mid/upr 20s inland to upr 30s/lower 40s OBX Wednesday night. Temps moderate a bit Thursday with highs upper 40s to low 50s inland and upper 50s along the coast. Thursday night through Monday...Complex weather pattern evolving towards the end of the week as a sharp shortwave trough is forecast phase with a weak closed low moving into the Gulf of Mexico. The result is a strong shortwave/closed low over the southeastern U.S. late Friday into Saturday interacting with the stalled front/baroclinic zone, resulting in cyclogenesis off the northeast coast of Florida lifting northeast towards the Carolinas. There still remain some questions regarding exact evolution of this system but model guidance is in better agreement this cycle than beforehand. Thus confidence is increasing for another wet and windy period especially for coastal areas this weekend. Coastal flooding may once again be a concern for areas along the southern half of the Pamlico Sound. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/... As of 645 PM Monday...No major changes to the trends for this TAF cycle. VFR conditions should prevail overnight into late morning Tuesday as mid and high clouds increase and thicken from the west. Several hours of MVFR conditions are likely from early afternoon to around dark Tuesday with light to moderate rain. With cooler and drier air rapidly surging in behind the strong Arctic front, conditions should improve to VFR by 00Z Weds. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 305 PM Mon...VFR conditions expected Wednesday through Thursday as a cold and dry airmass dominates the area. Sub-VFR conditions return late week into this weekend as a coastal low approaches the area with low-level wind shear becoming a concern by the weekend. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday night/... As of 10 PM Monday...Not much change in the marine conditions at late evening with S/SSW winds 10-15 knots, but with some gusts to 27 knots at Diamond Buoy and 18 knots at Duck Pier. Some long period swells continue over the northern water (15 sec.). Pressure gradient will tighten tonight, with the waters between the high to the east and front to the west. SW winds will increase to 15-20 kt late with a few gusts to 25 knots possible, strongest across the central waters where wave guidance shows seas building to 4-6 ft. Conditions will quickly deteriorate Tuesday afternoon, with strong winds and dangerous seas developing. A cold front will push through the waters Tuesday afternoon, and gale force northerly winds 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt will develop quickly behind it. Seas will respond, building to 8-12 feet Tuesday night. Gale Warnings now up for the waters and sounds, with SCA for the inland rivers. Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 310 PM Mon...Strong northerly winds of 25-30 knots with higher gusts weaken to 10-15 knots by Thursday morning, helping boating conditions slowly improve as high pressure builds into the area. Seas expected to fall below 6 feet by Thursday morning. Conditions deteriorate by the end of the period as a coastal low is expected to approach the North Carolina coast. A coastal trough developing ahead of the low late Thursday into Friday veers winds east/southeasterly at 10-15 knots before quickly backing northerly and increasing to near sustained gale force with higher gusts. Seas rapidly build Friday night into Saturday with seas of 15+ feet possible for outer coastal waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 PM Monday...Gale force northerly flow and higher than normal astronomical tides will combine to produce a minor sound side coastal flood threat across the southern Pamlico Sound region from the southern Outer Banks to Down-East Carteret county from Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Water levels up to 2 ft above normal could result in inundation of 1 to 1.5 ft above ground level. Strong northerly flow will also result in rough surf north of Cape Hatteras, with potential for minor beach erosion and ocean overwash. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for NCZ081-094-194>196-199. Wind Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ196-203>205. High Surf Advisory from 7 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...BM/MS AVIATION...CTC/CQD/BM MARINE...CTC/CQD/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX