202 
FXUS64 KLUB 112352
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
552 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

.AVIATION...
Very cold surface high pressure ridge will nose southward into the
area overnight with the center of a 1042+ MB surface ridge near
KCDS at 12Z Tuesday. Surface flow around 15 knots this evening 
will taper to under 10 knots later tonight. Lower cloud layer was 
just clearing KLBB, and the high cloud deck will thin and edge 
southeast later in the evening leaving clear skies. VFR throughout
the period. Surface low pressure trough will develop Tuesday 
afternoon with renewed modest south-southwest low level flow. 
RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Long wave upper trough will continue to swing east of the region 
this evening as surface high pressure settles over much of the FA. 
As our blustery day comes to a close the surface high will aid in
clearing skies from the NW to SE throughout the latter part of 
the evening. Clear skies tonight and light winds accompanied by 
todays Arctic air mass will result in very cold overnight low 
temperatures. Lows are expected to fall into the low teens area 
wide. 

Tomorrow through the Friday, upper level heights begin to increase
as an upper level ridge builds to our west. This pattern will
result in an oscillation of temperatures back towards the 70s by
mid week. A weak moisture starved cold front will move through the
region late Wednesday bringing "cooler" high temperatures in its 
wake for Thursday. Temperatures trend back towards warmer Friday 
and Saturday ahead of a low amplitude trough from the PAC NW that 
is progged to move across the FA Sunday. This system will be quick
hitting and appears mostly dry. Some long term guidance suggests 
that precipitation could occur over portions of the FA but, given
the lack of deep moisture, wide spread showers appear out of the 
question. However, light precip can not be totally ruled out for 
the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains where better dynamics
will occur. Thus, we will maintain a slight mention of RA over 
the southern zones.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05