700 FXUS63 KEAX 111727 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 .Discussion... Issued at 253 AM CST MON NOV 11 2019 Main concern for today is with the advertised potential for slick roadways this morning due to wintry mix transitioning to snow and frigid temperatures today through Tuesday. Currently seeing two regimes of forcing for precipitation across the area as of early Monday morning. The first is confined to areas across eastern Kansas to central Missouri and points south within an area of elevated frontogenesis in the 850 hPa to 700 hPa layer. This activity contains pockets of rain showers, which should transition to sleet as the elevated warm layer continues to cool through the morning. This would present the potential for slick roadways for areas generally south of the Missouri River during the morning commute. Unfortunately, temperatures will continue to cool after sunrise and through the day with strong cold advection filling into the area. Road temperatures as of 3 am are still in the low to mid 40 degree range within the area of concern and air temps are in the mid to upper 30 degree range. All said, there may be a brief window where sleet melts and then refreezes in the early to mid-morning, posing the potential for slick roadways, particularly on elevated surfaces. As the morning progresses, any wintry mix will transition to all snow before dry conditions return this afternoon. Ice accumulations will range from a light glaze to up to a few hundredths of an inch from the early to mid-morning, while snow totals within eastern Kansas and western Missouri will average near half an inch. The second area of precip is a broad area of light snow now entering southeast Nebraska and northwest Missouri. This is associated with mid-level shortwave energy embedded within the incoming cold air mass well north of the surface front. As the mid to upper-level trough continues to take on a more southeastward propagation, light snow will affect areas within a northwest to southeast axis, generally from northwest Missouri to central Missouri through much of the morning. Precip within this regime will remain in the form of all snow, while the separate wx type regimes merge by the mid to late morning and transition to all snow as the thermal profile continues to cool with time. Another concern, mainly across northern Missouri, is with the potential for blowing snow conditions this morning as wind gusts approach 30 to 35 mph, combined with more powdery snow as snow to liquid ratios hover near 18:1. In all, expecting snow totals to reach or slightly exceed 1 inch across northern to central Missouri. Have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory across northern Missouri, along with Pettis County through 12 pm. Beyond the 6 to 9 hour window of travel impacts, temperatures will continue to drop through the afternoon, with afternoon temps ranging in the lower 20s across northern Missouri to the lower 30s across central Missouri. Strong wind gusts will result in wind chill values in the single digits by the late afternoon hours. Overnight lows will dip into the single digits to low teens, while wind chills at that time will drop to near or below 0 degrees across the area. Will see a slow return of southerly surface flow Tuesday morning as the surface ridge pushes east, though with such a low starting point, afternoon highs Tuesday will remain below freezing. Temps will continue to slowly increase through the mid-week and into the weekend time frame. A quick moving clipper type system will move through the area Wednesday night, though great precip potential should remain north of the MO/IA border. Greater likelihood for precip locally will hold off until the late weekend. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1123 AM CST MON NOV 11 2019 IFR conditions will persist for an hour or two at the start of the period for KMCI, KMKC and KIXD; where snow continues to fall. Snow has ended at KSTJ, but MVFR ceilings will persist for much of the first six hours of the period. All sites will see improvement to MVFR as snow ends and clouds gradually clear north to south through the late afternoon and early evening. Expect VFR conditions to settle in by this evening and persist through the remainder of the period. Strong north winds will also gradually lessen through the evening, but remain out of the north through Tuesday morning before becoming more light and variable near the end of the period. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ057- 060-104-105. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ025-102-103. MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ025- 030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ004>008- 012>017-020>024-028-029. && $$ Discussion...Welsh Aviation...Kurtz