960 FXUS64 KAMA 111113 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 513 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS... IFR conditions will likely continue through 15-18z at all TAF sites, with a gradual trend towards MVFR/VFR thereafter. Low clouds freezing drizzle/light snow have pretty much been reported across the Panhandles, and was expected for the early part of the TAF period. As drier air moves in after 18z conditions will improve. Winds will still be very strong out of the north 25-35kts with gust up to 45kts at times. This will likely continue through about 00z where winds should drop back down closer to 10kts and by then all cigs should be VFR and should stay that way for the last 12 hours of the TAF period. Weber && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/ DISCUSSION... Cold front moving through the Panhandles, with low clouds drizzle/freezing drizzle and strong north winds being the main focus. Low clouds should encompass the majority of the Panhandles by 4AM with the drizzle/freezing drizzle concern moving in around the 4AM to 7AM period. This will continue through about noon, with drier air helping to erode the low clouds and freezing drizzle threat. Drizzle will likely only be an issue for about an hour or two, before the temperatures get cold enough that freezing drizzle becomes the issue. Most likely around the morning rush will be when the threat changes over the freezing drizzle. Will also note that the cold air is looking to be deep enough that we could see snow forming a couple thousand feet above the surface. So we could see a freezing drizzle shift to snow flurries. No accumulations expected, other than a light dusting. Additionally, if we get any light snow, the winds will be blowing, which makes it difficult for dendrites to grow and for snow to stay on the surface. Just another reason it will be difficult for anything to accumulate. Will note a possible low visibility issue in the morning with the light precipitation. Winds will be strong today with the cold front moving into the Panhandles. 850mb jet around 50 to 60 kts across the eastern Panhandles, with some daytime mixing opens up the potential for gusts in the 40 to 55 mph range. Sustained winds look to be in the 30 to 40 mph range. Stronger winds expected to the southeast with lighter winds to the northwest. In collaboration with surrounding offices, have decided to issue a wind Advisory to cover all Panhandles through 5PM. Highs today will likely be whatever the temperatures were at midnight, however afternoon highs look to be right around freezing for the majority of the Panhandles. The southeast may reach the mid to upper 30s, but temperatures will tank after sunset as much colder air moves into the area. Lows across the Panhandles will be in the single digits to the mid teens. Wind chills will be down in the single digits to slightly negative values, but winds will only be in the 4-7mph range. So while the winds will not be near as bad Tuesday morning as this morning, but we still will have a wind chill. Rest of the forecast... Tuesday will be a rebound day, with warmer air moving into the western Panhandles by mid day, allowing the temperatures to rise into the 50s, but the eastern Panhandles off the Caprock will likely be in the 40s as the colder air will not be completely out by the end of the day. Mild temperatures Panhandle wide on Wednesday, right now going with mainly 60s, but will have to keep a closer eye on things as we get into the near term, seems like as of late these lower to mid 60s days end up in the 70s with a touch of 80 in some isolated spots, with yesterday (Nov 10th) being a perfect example (70s Panhandle wide, with 80 in the southeast). Weak cold front to move through Wednesday night keeping highs on Thursday in the 50s. Mild air returns for Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s. Sunday looks to be up in the air as we may have system push through, but it may also skirt north of the area. For now NBM has given highs in the 50s with pops below 15 percent, which seems reasonable. Weber && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 33 14 48 31 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 32 8 48 26 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 33 12 54 27 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 35 14 51 32 68 / 10 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 36 13 53 30 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 34 13 48 30 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 35 13 45 28 66 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 34 11 53 26 70 / 10 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 34 10 53 27 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 34 14 48 30 67 / 10 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 33 12 47 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 32 12 46 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 35 12 43 24 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 Wellington TX 36 12 42 23 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill... Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts...Sherman... Wheeler. OK...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 89/89