421 FXUS63 KFGF 110544 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 Tweeked sky cover a bit more but still have the larger clear area from Winnipeg into NW MN as far south as Fosston. Stubborn cloud area from Langdon to Grand Forks then to Fargo and into MN lakes country. This cloud area is sagging south but also a bit more developing in the far nrn RRV. Coldest temps in parts of NW MN with clear skies and also in far NW fcst area Cando area where skies clear as well. Winds will remain up around 10 mph and our wind chills are in the forecast range predicted. A few snow showers continue off Lake of the Woods but winds are bit more west- northwest now at KBDE airport and webcams would indicate snow showers more into Ontario rather than into Baudette. A few flurries elsewhere in cloud areas but less than earlier. && .SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 348 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 CAA continues to filter into our area aloft and temperatures have held steady most of the day in the teens Steep lapse rates within northwest flow have supported pockets of flurries continuing this afternoon and evening. Strong signal for lake enhanced snow off Lake of the Woods with CAMs showing consensus of 1-3" and higher amounts 3-5" where narrower/intense bands set up. Orientation of low level flow more to the northwest could keep higher amounts just east of our CWA line in Canada or Koochiching county MN, but potential for impacts at Baudette and that stretch of MN Highway 11 is still there tonight-Monday afternoon. Deep layer of steep lapse rates expected tonight thorugh midday Monday in our eastern CWA (along/east of RRV) may also support flurries elsewhere, and with northwest flow off Red Lakes potential is there for lake enhancement as well (not a strong signal though and less certainty). Lows tonight have potential to be below zero across our entire forecast area, however lingering cloud cover and low level winds 10- 15 mph may limit radiational potential and keep lows generally in the single digits along the RRV and 0 to -5 at colder areas. Monday highs will struggle under this arctic air mass and potential cloud redevelopment and many locations will be 10-15 on the higher end. Main trough axis aloft shifts east and shortwave ridging build east Monday night. This should support clearing skies, and with surface high pressure center transitioning over our CWA light winds. While southerly flow aloft builds into our western CWA the air mass will remain very cold and though moderated compared to tonight, ideal radiational conditions could support lows just as low if not lower than tonight (especially in our eastern CWA). .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 348 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 Upper level pattern is still supports rising heights/moderating temperatures through the extended period, with progressive shortwave passages. Tuesday-Wednesday: Initially temperatures remain below normal with a mid level (weak) shortwave trough passage advertised by Tue night- Wed. Low confidence in coverage with higher spread in track/evolution, and some indication that forcing may split completely around our CWA. Progressive nature and lower QPF signal would be support lower impact/lighter amounts even if track was favorable. Wednesday night-Sunday: near seasonal normal temperatures return with highs back above freezing. Most periods remain dry through Friday, with progressive pattern support additional shortwaves Friday night thorugh Sunday (high spread/low confidence). && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2019 Cloud trends indicate more Scattered to clear sky TVF and DVL airports while lingering BKN sky cover GFK/FAR and BJI though some clearing may yet occur in these spots for a time late tonight/early Monday. Expect with any sun some diurnal CU to form in E ND and NW MN then clear out late aftn/eve. Ceilings look to be in the lower VFR range...but spotty MVFR is possible. Winds northwest 10 kts or so. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...DJR LONG TERM...DJR AVIATION...Riddle