048 
FXUS64 KLUB 100453
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1053 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the forecast period, with a slight chance
of reduced visibility and low clouds overnight at KLBB and KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Tonight will continue with the quiet theme from today as upper 
ridging sets in over the region. Upper ridging will stay in place
for most of tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front is still expected to roar through during the early morning 
hours Monday. Models continue to speed up the timing of the front 
with the GFS and NAM having the front south of the FA by 09Z which
is highly expected given the strength of the front. Models have 
also backed off on precip chances with the front. Currently the 
ECMWF is the wettest as it has been, but it has even backed down 
on chances and amounts. The forecast will continue to reflect 
slight rain chances mainly across the Rolling Plains following the
best surface convergence behind the surface low. The possibility 
for drizzle still remains, and if it happens it should be rather 
short lived as surface moisture will be quickly pushed to the 
south by the front. As freezing temps aren't expected until mid 
day or so Monday there currently does not appear to be a threat 
for freezing precip. Temperatures will drop through the day as CAA
filters in and cloud cover remains thick. Winds will be roughly 
20-30 mph sustained behind the front making temps feel that much 
colder. Winds should subside after sunset, however, as a surface 
high begins to settle in over the region. This will drop lows into
the teens Tuesday morning. Temperatures will remain on the chilly
side Tuesday before warming into the 60s Wednesday.

The pattern Tuesday through early Thursday will be dominated by
northwesterly flow aloft. Upper ridging is expected overhead
Thursday as a weak passive front moves through the region. Models
begin to diverge on the pattern going into the weekend. The GFS
continues to bring a closed upper low across northern Mexico that
is supplied with rich GOMEX and Pacific moisture creating a heavy
rain event. The ECMWF continues with an open wave bringing another
cold front into the region by Sunday.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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