581 FXUS64 KBMX 092328 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 528 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0238 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2019/ Surface high pressure will continue to support fair skies this afternoon with high temperatures ranging from the upper 50's northwest to the mid 60's southeast. Surface winds will shift to the west by late afternoon. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area tonight, from midnight through 7 am. Lows tonight under fair skies with light winds will range from around 33 to 38 degrees. Frost should develop over a large area, although all areas may not experience the frost. Expect fair skies on Sunday with continued low-level winds out of the southwest. Highs will range from the mid 60's north to near 70 far south. A reminder that we will continue to issue Frost Advisories, Freeze Watches and Freeze Warnings through Thanksgiving or until a majority of our counties fall to 28 degrees or colder. We will issue a PNS if our frost/freeze program is ended early. 05 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0238 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2019/ The anomalous trough moving through the central United States Tuesday and Wednesday will be the talk of the forecast period. An arctic cold front will push into Central Alabama Tuesday morning, with nearly steady cold temperatures during the day. Behind the sharp, strong front, winds will be breezy. Northerly winds will be 10-15 mph with some gusts into the 25 mph range. Wind chills will be in the 30s much of the day. As far as precipitation, it remains quite consistent that the moisture and precipitation will stay ahead of the colder air and no wintry weather is mentioned at this time. The cold air will be near records by Wednesday morning, see the Climate section below. 75 ...Previous extended discussion... To our northwest, an Arctic cold front will surge southward on Monday as a shortwave trough axis rotates through the northern and central CONUS. Much of the day should remain rain-free with mild conditions, but this will change during the late afternoon and evening. Southwesterly low-level flow will contribute to increasing moisture content, leading to widespread light to moderate rain associated with post-frontal lift. Temperatures will plunge Monday night and Tuesday morning, but an overlap of freezing temperatures with precipitation is not expected across our northern counties. Temperatures north of I-20 on Tuesday afternoon should remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s due to strong cold advection. With high pressure expected to move close enough produce weakening surface winds Tuesday night, our current forecast indicates a good chance of record-breaking temperatures on Wednesday morning. Temperatures should begin to moderate Wednesday afternoon and into Thursday as warm advection occurs ahead of an upstream shortwave. Moisture currently appears very limited and only a slight chance of showers has been included across our southern counties Thursday into Thursday night as a potential surface low moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Friday appears cool and dry behind the departing shortwave. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. /VFR conditions tonight & Sunday/ Fair weather continues through this TAF period. Surface winds are expected to be calm tonight and Sunday morning, increasing to around 5 knots from the south to southwest for the afternoon. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain-free weather will continue through the weekend with light winds and minimum RH values generally 35% or higher in the afternoons. Our next chance of rain will come Monday afternoon into Monday night with much colder temperatures to follow for Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... November 13 Forecast and Record readings BHM Forecast 22 Record 22 in 1911 MGM Forecast 27 Record 24 in 1968 TCL Forecast 22 Record 22 in 1968 AND Forecast 23 Record 24 in 1968 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 33 65 40 67 33 / 0 0 0 10 90 Anniston 35 66 42 68 36 / 0 0 0 10 90 Birmingham 37 66 44 68 34 / 0 0 0 20 90 Tuscaloosa 35 67 43 69 34 / 0 0 0 30 90 Calera 36 66 42 69 35 / 0 0 0 10 90 Auburn 37 66 43 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 80 Montgomery 37 69 43 73 42 / 0 0 0 10 80 Troy 36 69 42 72 44 / 0 0 0 10 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Sunday for the following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount... Bullock...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay... Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene... Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo... Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph... Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa... Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston. && $$