171 FXUS61 KPHI 091147 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 647 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure extending from western Virginia to eastern Pennsylvania early this morning will drift northeastward and it should move off the coast this afternoon. The high is forecast to continue influencing our weather into Monday. Low pressure is expected to move from the Ohio River Valley on Monday to New England on Monday night. The low is anticipated to pull a strong cold front through our region early on Tuesday. High pressure is expected to follow for the mid week period. A weak cold front approaching from the west is forecast to pass through our region on Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The surface high will crest the area today, and at mid-lvls zonal flow will prevail. A low-amplitude mid-lvl wave will cross the area, however this will only result in an increase in high- lvl cloud cover. Although the low-lvl flow turns southerly this afternoon on the backside of the departing high, the airmass will not begin to warm noticeably until around/after sunset. Consequently high temperatures will be similar to Friday with most locations only topping out in the low to mid 40s (mid to upper 30s in the Poconos/NW NJ). That being said it may feel warmer as the winds will be noticeably weaker than Friday. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... A couple of low amplitude and moisture-starved shortwaves will pass through the area overnight, with increases in mid-high lvl clouds once again being the only impacts. Overnight lows should run about 5- 10 degrees warmer than Saturday morning, moderated by the warming airmass and potentially by thicker mid/high-lvl clouds moving in early Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure is forecast to extend from the southeastern states to the waters off Nova Scotia on Sunday morning. A cold front is expected to reach from southern Quebec, across the Great Lakes to the middle Mississippi River Valley. The high is anticipated to slide slowly to the east on Sunday and Sunday night with the cold front making slow progress to the southeast. Low pressure is expected to develop along the front in the Ohio River Valley on Monday. The pattern will result in a southwest to south surface flow for Sunday and Monday along with a return to temperatures that are more typical of early to mid November. Partly cloudy conditions are forecast for Sunday with an increase in cloud cover likely on Monday. The surface low is expected to pass across our region on Monday night, reaching southeastern New England by daybreak on Tuesday. The low should pull the cold front through our forecast area early on Tuesday. Rain is anticipated to overspread eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey from the west on Monday night. The precipitation will likely linger into Tuesday morning before ending from west to east on Tuesday afternoon. The surge of cold air is expected to change the rain to snow in the elevated terrain of the Pocono Region and northwestern New Jersey early on Tuesday morning. The change-over may work its way southward into the Interstate 78 Corridor during the course of the morning. Since most of the snow should fall during the daytime hours, accumulations will likely be elevation dependent. A light accumulation seems plausible in the elevated terrain. However, snow accumulations in the valleys should be limited. The rain may end as a brief period of snow as far southeast as the Interstate 95 Corridor on Tuesday afternoon, with no accumulation expected there. Unseasonably cold high pressure is forecast to build from the middle Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night to our region on Wednesday night. The pressure gradient between the departing low and the approaching high should result in windy conditions for our region from Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to drop to around 20 degrees below normal on Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the upper 30s in the south. Wind chill values early on Wednesday morning may fall a bit below zero in the Poconos and they should range from 5 to 15 in much of the rest of our region. The center of the high will likely move off the coast on Thursday with dry weather expected at that time. Temperatures are forecast to remain close to 15 degrees below normal. A weak cold front or surface trough from the west is expected to arrive on Thursday night. The air behind the boundary should not be particularly cold. Actually, we may warm a bit in its wake on Friday. Some light precipitation is possible from Thursday night into Friday morning. Perhaps a light wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor, and light rain from the Interstate 95 Corridor southeastward. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR, with light and variable winds becoming southerly around 5 kts. in the afternoon. High confidence Tonight...VFR conditions, with winds generally 5 kts of less either variable of favoring a southerly direction. High confidence. OUTLOOK... Sunday...Mainly VFR. Southwest wind increasing around 10 knots. High confidence. Sunday night and Monday...Mainly VFR. Southwest to south wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Monday night...Rain developing with conditions lowering from VFR to MVFR and IFR. South to west wind 5 to 10 knots. Medium confidence. Tuesday...Rain and MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning. Rain ending in the afternoon with some improvement to VFR. The rain may change to light snow at KRDG and KABE. Northwest wind increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Medium confidence. Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Medium confidence. && .MARINE... Seas will continue to decrease through the day today likely dropping to 2 ft or less by this afternoon/evening. Winds will shift to the south around 5-10kts (with limited gustiness) this afternoon, with gusts increasing to around 15kts late tonight into early Sunday morning. OUTLOOK... Sunday through Monday night...No marine headlines are anticipated. Tuesday through Wednesday...A northwest wind is expected to increase to 20 to 30 knots with the possibility of a period of gale force gusts. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Carr Short Term...Carr Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Carr/Iovino Marine...Carr/Iovino