905 FXUS63 KICT 071737 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1137 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Forecast highlights: 1) Chilly and breezy today. 2) Very high grassland fire danger central Kansas Friday (refer to Fire Weather section below). 3) Unseasonably warm Saturday. 4) Much colder Sunday night through Tuesday, with below normal temperatures likely lingering through at least mid to late next week. Early this morning...a light wintry mix of rain-sleet-snow is possible across far southern portions of south-central Kansas and north-central Oklahoma, mainly along/west of I-35, within a zone of strong 850mb frontogenesis. While little to no snow or sleet accumulation is likely, some patchy slick spots cannot be ruled out, especially on elevated surfaces. Lift and associated precipitation should shift south of the region by 6-7 AM. Otherwise, Much cooler temperatures and breezy north/northeast winds will prevail today, as unseasonably strong high pressure builds in from the north. Early morning wind chills will be in the teens and 20s, with today's high temperatures only reaching the upper 30s to low 40s. Strengthening High Plains low pressure in concert with building atmospheric thickness will support warmer and breezy weather Friday, with forecast highs reaching the 50s for most, although could flirt with 60 degrees across Russell-Barton counties. Unseasonably warm weather looks to return by Saturday, as west/southwest downslope flow develops across the region. High temperatures in the 60s-70s look likely, warmest generally west of the KS Turnpike. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Attention then turns to the potential for unseasonably cold air to blast south across the region Sunday night through Tuesday. Deterministic models and their associated ensemble means strongly support this setup, with the approaching Arctic high pressure measuring 3+ standard deviations above normal, suggesting a rare event for this time of year, with possible record lows and record cold highs Monday-Tuesday. There remains some timing differences when the coldest air will arrive, with the GFS bringing it down by Sunday afternoon, and the ECMWF Sunday night. But at the very latest the cold air will arrive by Sunday night or early Monday. Daytime temperatures Monday-Tuesday will probably only reach the upper 20s to low 30s, with overnight lows possibly as cold as the single digits by early Tuesday. Combined with the expected strong/gusty north winds, overnight and early morning wind chills may dip below zero. A modest warm-up is expected by mid next week, although probably still remaining below normal. Precipitation-wise, the region may see some light snow and/or flurries Sunday night-Monday as the strong & deep cold frontal zone oozes south. There remains some uncertainty, but overall model consensus supports possibly light snow accumulations. Stay tuned. A major winter storm event is unlikely. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 Breezy northerly winds will quickly subside by late afternoon/early evening as high pressure settles over the area allowing rapid decoupling to occur. As high pressure shifts eastward away from the region on Friday, breezy southwesterly winds will return from west to east across the area. VFR is anticipated through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2019 For Friday...rising temperatures, low relative humidity and breezy south to southwest winds will result in a very high grassland fire danger across portions of central and north central Kansas, mainly from Reno county northward. Critical fire danger or red flag conditions are not expected. Otherwise, periodically high grassland fire danger is expected across the region through the next 7-10 days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 42 22 52 33 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 40 21 54 32 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 40 21 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 40 21 50 34 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 42 22 51 34 / 20 0 0 0 Russell 39 23 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 40 22 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 39 21 54 34 / 0 0 0 0 McPherson 39 20 53 32 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 42 22 51 32 / 20 0 0 0 Chanute 41 21 49 33 / 10 0 0 0 Iola 40 21 49 32 / 10 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 42 21 50 33 / 20 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...ADK