498 FXUS64 KSJT 061221 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 621 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ Low stratus blankets the area once again this morning with all terminals currently reporting MVFR ceilings. Expect these ceilings to persist through the morning hours with periods of patchy fog or mist also possible. Cigs should gradually lift to VFR this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorm activity this afternoon looks to remain mainly to the west out across the Permian Basin and South Plains. For tonight MVFR/IFR ceilings will return to the terminals as low level moisture surges back into the region. Though not indicated in this TAF package, a strong cold front will approach KABI around 09-12Z Thursday morning resulting in an abrupt wind shift out of the north. Finally, confidence is low in convective development overnight as the front approaches the region. Have included a mention of -RA for KABI after 06Z as models indicate showers or storms spreading eastward along the I-20 corridor mainly between 06-12Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) ..Possible Rain... The potential for rain, today and tonight, still looks fairly promising, especially for some of our northern counties. All the short term models (NAM, NAM NEST, HRRR) keep most of the convection north and west of our area today. So, continuing the best rain chances for today, across mainly the Big Country looks best. Then, these same models bring more convection over West Central Texas tonight. Nevertheless, the best rain chances remain mainly over the Big Country; that's where the better upper dynamics will be. As for rain amounts, the Weather Prediction Center has placed areas of West Central Texas, mainly along and north of a line from Mertzon, to San Angelo, to Brownwood, in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. Also, for areas of West Central Texas, mainly along and north of our Interstate 20 corridor, the excessive rainfall risk is Slight. Thus, locations along and north of Interstate 20 may receive amounts from around one inch to perhaps two inches; that's for today and tonight. Elsewhere, for today and tonight, rainfall amounts may range from around one quarter inch to one inch. LONG TERM... (Thursday and Thursday Night) ..Rain Potential Continues with Another Cold Front... Another cold front on Thursday will add to the mix supporting rain. Although the best upper dynamics will be moving farther north and east, cold air near the surface, associated with this front, will help lift the warmer moist air. As the cold front progresses south, across West Central Texas, Thursday, the precipitation mode will likely become more showery, as the warmer air glides up and over the cold air near the surface. Thus, thunderstorm activity should diminish Thursday afternoon, with showers becoming more dominate. Corresponding, expect rainfall amounts to decrease, during the day, on Thursday. Overnight Thursday night, showers will be the dominate precipitation producer, and rainfall amounts will be light, while generally limited to locations along and south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. (Friday through Tuesday) ..Mainly Dry with Temperature Swings... Aside from the possibility of more rain Sunday night into Monday, the rest of the long term forecast remains dry, with some temperature swings. Another upper system and its associated cold front will likely move into the picture late this weekend. Models this cycle bring this next cold front across West Central Texas mainly on Monday. This front will again bring colder air. The upper dynamics with this system looks weak over West Central Texas; thus, showers will likely be the dominate precipitation producer, and rainfall amounts correspondingly light. For Tuesday, highs may be limited to the 40s, with cold air still moving into West Central Texas, as a wind from the north or northeast continues. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 77 49 52 37 / 50 80 90 20 San Angelo 78 57 58 37 / 30 60 90 30 Junction 77 61 64 38 / 20 30 80 30 Brownwood 77 57 58 36 / 30 50 90 20 Sweetwater 75 46 48 36 / 60 90 80 10 Ozona 74 60 62 38 / 20 50 80 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 42