889 FXUS62 KTAE 061130 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Thursday] MVFR CIGS are showing up on satellite mostly in the FL Panhandle and a few spots in SE AL. CIGS are dissipating near TLH now but ECP may remain around 2kft for another hour or two. Otherwise, winds will be light out of the northeast. Higher confidence in widespread IFR/MVFR conditions after 9z Wednesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION [207 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... The broad upper trough from the previous days will flatten out with zonal flow aloft today. The surface high pressure will be moving off the east coast with easterly flow at the surface over the local area. This will bring in low level moisture this morning but with afternoon mixing, we should see a mostly sunny sky. An upper weakness over the Gulf will develop a few showers but the land areas should stay dry today. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]... In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow will be over the region until a trough moves in tomorrow night. At the surface, high pressure will be over the Mid-Atlantic states with easterly low level flow over the region. Tomorrow, a low pressure system will approach the region bringing southerly low level flow. A cold front will move through on Friday followed by cold, dry air advection Friday evening/night. POPs will begin to increase tomorrow late afternoon and evening in the westernmost counties. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be Thursday night and Friday morning. Highs will be in the 70s and lower 80s tomorrow and in the 60s and lower 70s on Friday. Lows will be in the 50s and lower 60s. .LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... In the upper levels, the trough over the region will weaken by Sunday. Another trough will move in Monday night. At the surface, high pressure will move into the region Friday night bringing a cool, dry weekend. The best chance for showers will be Friday night as the front is exiting the region. Temps will plummet Friday and Friday night as cold, dry air moves in behind the cold front. Highs will be mainly in the 60s and lower 70s. Lows will be in the 40s starting Friday night. The coldest morning will be Sunday morning with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s. .MARINE... Moderate winds will be easterly or northeasterly until a cold front moves through Thursday night. Moderate to strong northerly winds will move in on Friday morning and continue through Saturday morning. On Saturday, winds will become more northeasterly. By Sunday, northeasterly winds will weaken. .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather returns for today through Thursday with minimum RH values well above minimum thresholds. Forecasting RH will be tricky the next two days as the dew point slowly increases. Mixing heights will increase to above 2500ft with transport winds of 10-20 MPH. This will lead afternoon dispersion values at least above 35 each day. Patchy fog will be possible each morning. .HYDROLOGY... The best chance for rain will be Thursday night and Friday morning as a cold front moves through. Forecast rainfall totals are around half an inch or less for the next seven days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 81 60 81 60 70 / 0 0 10 40 30 Panama City 80 63 80 61 70 / 0 0 30 50 30 Dothan 77 58 76 54 63 / 0 0 30 60 30 Albany 77 57 77 57 64 / 0 0 10 60 30 Valdosta 79 59 80 60 67 / 0 0 10 50 40 Cross City 82 63 84 65 75 / 10 0 0 20 40 Apalachicola 78 65 78 63 71 / 10 0 20 50 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LN SHORT TERM...McD LONG TERM...McD AVIATION...LN MARINE...McD FIRE WEATHER...LN HYDROLOGY...McD