239 FXUS63 KILX 050943 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 343 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 343 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Skies will become partly to mostly sunny across central Illinois today. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the middle 40s along and north of a Macomb to Bloomington line...to the lower 50s south of I-70. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 A few showers will linger south of I-70 for the next couple of hours before the light precip shifts eastward into the Ohio River Valley shortly after dawn. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows clearing has already occurred in the Illinois River Valley...and this will work eastward across the remainder of the KILX CWA before midday. Despite a mostly sunny afternoon, northwesterly winds will keep highs mostly in the 40s. High pressure will move overhead this evening, resulting in nearly calm winds and temperatures quickly bottoming out in the lower to middle 30s. Readings may rise a couple of degrees after midnight, particularly across the west where southerly return flow kicks up. In addition, models are showing an area of WAA clouds/precip developing across Iowa by mid-evening, then spreading across north-central Illinois overnight. While the strongest forcing will remain along/north of I-80, have added slight chance PoPs for light rain/snow from the Peoria area northward from late evening through the remainder of the night. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) ISSUED AT 343 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2019 Thanks to southwesterly winds gusting to around 25mph, high temperatures will moderate back into the middle 50s on Wednesday. A strong cold front will drop southward into the region Wednesday night...bringing the next significant chance for precipitation. 00z Nov 5 models have come into much better agreement concerning the timing/areal coverage of precip...with all solutions focusing the heaviest precip axis further south across southern Illinois into Kentucky. Meanwhile further north, there is growing evidence that a band of frontogenetic forcing will trigger light precip well north of the surface boundary. NAM 800-700mb layer frontogenesis shows this forcing developing across Iowa by 03z Thu...then further east along the Wisconsin/Illinois border by 06z Thu. The forcing then drops slowly southward into the northern KILX CWA overnight. As a result, have increased PoPs...especially overnight when the stronger forcing arrives. Deep-layer moisture will be limited, so overall precip amounts will remain quite light. Thermal profiles initially support rain, with the rain then mixing with and changing to light snow by Thursday morning. Based on latest parameters, it appears the mixed precip will spread as far south as a Danville to Shelbyville line...with all rain expected further south. Little or no snow accumulation is anticipated across the north. Once this system departs, a very cold Canadian airmass will settle into Illinois for the end of the week. Low temperatures Thursday night will drop into the teens, while highs on Friday remain in the 30s. After a brief moderating trend over the weekend, another short-wave trough diving out of Canada will dig a deep trough over the eastern CONUS by early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF show 850mb temps plunging to around -20C by Monday...which will translate to near record cold for central Illinois. High temperatures may struggle to reach freezing on Monday, while lows dip into the teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2019 Northwest to west winds and VFR conditions will prevail through most of the period behind a departing cold front. A weak surface ridge will build across the region Tuesday evening and overnight allowing winds to become light and variable. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Deubelbeiss